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Turyzm
|
2012
|
vol. 22
|
issue 2
7-13
EN
The author discusses the tourism geography research which has been undertaken at Lomonosov State University in Moscow over many years. This academic institution is one of the most famous research centres dealing with spatial recreation systems. At first (from the 1960’s), research was mainly on geographical and technical issues, but the research area was gradually enlarged for example to include social and humanistic elements. The best known research has been done on ‘spatial recreation systems’, ‘polarized landscapes’, the ‘recreational economy spatial complex’, and the ‘environmental model of a spatial system’.
Tourism
|
2012
|
vol. 22
|
issue 2
7-13
EN
The author discusses the tourism geography research which has been undertaken at Lomonosov State University in Moscow over many years. This academic institution is one of the most famous research centres dealing with spatial recreation systems. At first (from the 1960’s), research was mainly on geographical and technical issues, but the research area was gradually enlarged for example to include social and humanistic elements. The best known research has been done on ‘spatial recreation systems’, ‘polarized landscapes’, the ‘recreational economy spatial complex’, and the ‘environmental model of a spatial system’
PL
Autorki omawiają prognozowanie jako szczególny obszar badań naukowych, który pomaga ocenić perspektywy rozwoju aktywności turystycznej, zidentyfikować kluczowe czynniki procesu zmian zachodzących w turyzmie oraz kryteria efektywnego zarządzania. Artykuł zawiera przegląd nowoczesnych metod badawczych stosowanych w Rosji i w innych krajach do sporządzania prognoz w dziedzinie turystyki. Celem opracowania jest ocena predyktywnych możliwości modelowania adaptacyjnego, obecnie niezbyt często stosowanego w badaniach turystycznych, do przeprowadzania ilościowej analizy ruchu turystycznego. Na podstawie danych dotyczących Barcelony – dużego miejskiego centrum turystycznego w czasach przed pandemią – opierając się na modelach adaptacyjnych, przedstawiono przykład prognozy liczby podróżnych. Jest to jeden z głównych wskaźników sukcesu turystycznego ujawnionego w trakcie badania procesów o dynamicznym, lecz niestałym charakterze.
EN
The article discusses forecasting as one of the special scientific research areas which contribute to the assessment of tourist activity development prospects, the identification of key tourism development factors and effective management decision criteria. The study provides an overview of modern research methods used in Russia and other countries for making forecasts in the field of tourism. It aims at assessing the predictive capabilities of adaptive modeling, not frequently used currently in tourism research, for the quantitative analysis of tourist flows using the example of Barcelona, a major urban tourist destination in the pre-pandemic period. An example of a forecast for tourist numbers based on adaptive models is proposed, one of the key indicators showing tourist region success which have proven successful in the study of processes with a dynamic but unstable character.
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