The article is an attempt to compare the quality of the Silesian economy econometrics model with the model built according to the concept of the dynamic concordant model. The analysis covers the total sector of enterprises and sectors of public and private companies. To assess the quality of individual equations adjusted coefficient of determination was used.
The paper attempts to use the econometric model in the evaluation of trends in the economy of the Śląskie Voivodeship. The analysis is mainly based on the final equation of the model. The characteristic roots indicate that the economy of Upper Silesia does not have a cyclical nature (the lack of complex roots) and the private enterprise sector is characterised with higher efficiency than the public enterprise sector, since the curve for endogenous variable yt is converging with the asymptote y = 0 more quickly in the case of public enterprises than in the case of private enterprise sector.
Celem artykułu jest analiza porównawcza i ocena koniunktury gospodarczej w województwie śląskim oraz w Polsce na podstawie agregatowych wskaźników ekonomicznych, takich jak produkt krajowy brutto, wartość dodana brutto, inwestycje, wskaźniki bezrobocia oraz inflacji. Do analizy wykorzystano dane GUS z lat 1995-2012.
EN
The objective of the study is a comparative analysis and evaluation of the economic situation in the Silesian Province and in Poland on the basis of aggregate economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, gross value added, investments, unemployment and inflation rates. Data of the Central Statistical Office (Polish: GUS) from the period of 1995-2012 were used for the analysis.
Celem artykułu jest prognostyczna weryfikacja modelu gospodarki województwa śląskiego oraz ocena dynamicznych własności gospodarki na podstawie pierwiastków charakterystycznych równania końcowego. Na podstawie danych z lat 1999-2011 oszacowano parametry modelu charakteryzującego gospodarkę województwa śląskiego. Na bazie obliczonych prognoz na jeden okres naprzód oceniono wartość prognostyczną modelu. Do oceny dynamicznych własności modelu wykorzystano pierwiastki charakterystyczne równania końcowego.
EN
The purpose of the article is a prognostic verification of Silesian voivodship’s economy model and the evaluation of dynamic properties of economy on the basis of characteristic roots of final equation. The parameters of a model characterizing the economy of the Silesian voivodship were estimated on the basis of the data from the period of 1999-2011. The prognostic value of the model was estimated on the basis of prognoses calculated for one period. The evaluation of dynamic properties of the model was based on the characteristic roots of final equation.
Procedures and cause descriptive model, dynamic consistent model and vector autoregression model were used for modeling of selected variables characterizing the economy of the Upper Silesia. To assess the conformity of these three types of models the AIC, BIC, coefficient of determination and corrected coefficient of determination were used. Despite the use of different procedures, final results show similar quality of models.
This paper presents problems of the construction of econometric models (MES-1 and MGS) in the Polish economy. These models were constructed in the 80's by a team led by Professor Kolonko. Model of the Polish economy - MES - 1 covered areas of: employment, production, national income, public money fund, consumption and foreign trade. The main object of this model was prediction. This model had a high compliance measured by determination ratio. Estimated prognosis had relatively high accuracy. To estimate the predictive accuracy of the model measures ex-ante and ex-post were used. MGS model was used to the simulation analysis. The transition to a market economy and changes in the economic system in the early 90's led to abandonment of further work on the use of constructed models.
Celem przeprowadzonych badań jest ocena wielkości skutków uzależnień od hazardu na podstawie badań ankietowych przeprowadzonych wśród pacjentów ośrodków leczenia uzależnienia od hazardu. Badania ankietowe zostały przeprowadzone w okresie marzec-wrzesień 2013 r. Wyniki badania wskazują, że w Polsce, podobnie jak w innych krajach, uzależnienie od hazardu powoduje wiele negatywnych konsekwencji zdrowotnych, społecznych i ekonomicznych dla osób dotkniętych tym uzależnieniem oraz dla ich rodzin, a skutki niematerialne i koszty spowodowane uzależnieniem od hazardu są znaczne.
EN
The purpose of the study was to estimate the consequences of gambling addiction on the basis of a survey conducted among the patients of gambling addiction treatment centres. The survey was conducted from March through September 2013. The results of the research indicate that in Poland, like in other countries, gambling addiction causes many negative health, social and economic consequences for both addicts and their families, and the financial as well as non-financial consequences caused by gambling addiction are significant.
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