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PL
W tym artykule prezentujemy podejście do budowy wyprzedzającego wskaźnika popytu na kredyt gospodarstw domowych. W celu prawidłowego określenia wymiarowości wskaźnika podejmujemy analizę teoretyczną jego komponentów, a następnie dobieramy pytania z ankiety badania kondycji gospodarstw domowych i badania consumer finance celem oceny przebiegu zmian w wyselekcjonowanych obszarach. W kolejnym kroku dokonujemy agregacji wymiarów i dołączamy nowopowstały wskaźnik, jako zmienną objaśniającą do modelu ARIMA. Pokazujemy, że wskaźnik pozwala wyjaśnić istotną część wariancji zmian na rynku kredytu dla gospodarstw domowych. 
EN
In this paper we present a novel approach for construction of a leading indicator for household demand for debt, i.e. consumer credit demand index. In order to derive the proper set of indicators we first present a theoretical background for the dimensions of the index. With all dimensions of the index at hand we search for indicators in the State of the Households Survey and consumer finance survey. We later aggregate the dimensions into a single index with generalized mean which does not allow for full compensability between dimensions. Finally, we check the leading properties of the index.       
EN
The paper examines the “product gap” in the Polish economy in 1993-2004. The author estimates the non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization (NAICU), and he also analyzes unemployment using the Hodrick-Prescott filter method. The results of the analysis indicate that the Polish economy in 1993-95 was below its potential level of utilization of factors of production. In 1995-99, dynamic economic growth spurred by efficient reforms at the start of the 1990s led to the overstepping of the potential level of capacity utilization. During the recession of 2000-02, the real product was lower than expected due to consistent restructuring. The rebound of 2003 led to a quick bridging of the gap. The increase of the product above its potential value was due to a lack of growth in investment spending as well as structural problems on the labor market. The author notes that the analysis of the potential level of the product should be an important element of economic policy, because it makes it possible to determine the position of the economy in the business cycle.
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