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Modelling of Agricultural Import Demand in Ukraine

100%
Shevchuk V.
Information Systems in Management
|
2014
|
vol. 3
|
issue 3
201-211
EN
Based on the monthly data from four aggregated agricultural sectors for the 2001-2014 period, this paper investigates the determinants of demand for agricultural imports in Ukraine by using the time-varying parameter technique (the Kalman filter). The outcome suggests that the real exchange rate depreciation contributes to a lower demand for meat, fish and dairy products; vegetable oil and foodstuffs, while not affecting demand for wheat and vegetables. Domestic industrial output correlates with a higher demand for all four groups of agricultural imports. Import substitution effect of domestic agricultural production is found for three out of four groups of agricultural imports, except meat, fish and dairy products. Following an increase in international prices, there is a decrease in demand for wheat and vegetables, as well as for foodstuffs, while there is an opposite effect in demand for other groups, i.e. meat, fish and dairy products and vegetable oil.
2
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MODELLING OF EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTS AND COMPLIMENTARIES BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE

100%
Shevchuk V.
Information Systems in Management
|
2016
|
vol. 5
|
issue 3
401-412
EN
This paper examines links between the exchange rate, agricultural and industrial outputs in Ukraine. This is estimated using monthly data for the 2001-2015 period. Results provide evidence that there is a positive spillover from agriculture to industry, being in line with modern arguments on the role of agricultural sector in economic growth (infrastructural spillovers, rural income effects, provision of resources for an industrialized economy). However, industrial output squeezes out agricultural production in the short run. Depreciation of the nominal (real) exchange rate has an expansionary effect on industrial output, but it is harmful for agriculture. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that agriculture-supporting policies should be productive in the industrialization context either.
3
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DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR INTERNATIONAL RESERVES IN UKRAINE

100%
Shevchuk V.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
|
2015
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vol. 16
|
issue 2
102-112
EN
This study investigates the demand for international reserves in Ukraine and its structural change in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis in the context of a univariate error correction model (ECM). We find a time-invariant demand for international reserves in the short-run, with the inverse relationship with the volatility of international transactions, exchange rate depreciation and the excessive money stock and the positive link to imports and crisis developments. However, the long-term relationships are not stable over time, except for the effects of the money disequilibrium and crisis disturbances. The exchange rate depreciation and electoral cycle contribute to a depletion of reserves during the post-crisis period only. The adjustment of actual reserves to their long-run relationships is quite rapid.
4
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GERMAN FISCAL AUSTERITY EFFECTS ON INVESTMENTS AND EXPORTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

63%
Shevchuk V., Kopych R.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
|
2017
|
vol. 18
|
issue 1
110-119
EN
Fiscal austerity in Germany used to be blamed for a stagnant growth in the European countries. However, it seems not to be the case for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. As it is established on the basis of vector error-correction model (VECM) estimates for quarterly series over the 2002-2015 period, a positive non-Keynesian spillover from the fiscal austerity in Germany to output in the CEE countries is realized mainly through an increase in investments, with the export channel being rather ambiguous across countries. Following an improvement in the German budget balance, there is a decrease in exports measured as percent of GDP in 6 out of 10 CEE countries. Depreciation of the real exchange rate (RER) is found for countries with exchange rate flexibility, while the opposite effect of RER appreciation is observed in countries with a fixed exchange rate arrangement. It is possible to argue that spillover effects of German austerity on the CEE countries are dominated by capital flows or confidence measures while foreign demand or relative price channels are rather weak.
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