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1

POLISH ECONOMY IN 2009 WITH ELEMENTS OF ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR THE YEARS 2020-2011 (Polska gospodarka w 2009 r., z elementami prognozy na lata 2010 - 2011)

100%
Chroscicki T.
Optimum. Studia Ekonomiczne
|
2010
|
issue 2 (46)
3-19
EN
In 2009 the economic situation in Poland was to a considerable degree determined by processes observed in world economy. The consumption and investment dynamics was getting smaller by the quarter of the year, parallel to a substantial reduction in the reserve level. This resulted in an essential decrease in wage pressure and, in a number of sectors, in a drop in real wages. Furthermore, the imbalance in the state budget of local government units deteriorated significantly. On the positive side, however, was the fact that inflation was under control. What is more, there was a decrease in the external imbalance of the country which manifested itself in a low deficite in foreign trade. There was a distinct recovery in the situation on the Stock Exchange and an increase in price of investment fund units. A high priority of the Polish economy for the very near future is to overcome a tendency for stagnation and to stop the growth in the budget deficite, as well as the increase in public debt. The situation in the world poses a seriuos threat to a recovery of the economy in our country. A number of factors indicate that during the period 2010 - 2011 an upturn in the economic climate worldwide, including the EU member countries, will be moderate. The economic growth of Poland will be supported by the private and social sector consumption and public investments. Only in years to come, despite growing inflation, can we expect a growth in real wages of the population and consumers' trust.
2

MIDTERM FORECAST OF SLOVAK ECONOMY FOR THE PERIOD 2010 - 2013 WITH OUTLOOK TO 2015

61%
Radvanský M., Pálenik V., Slobodníková S.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2010
|
vol. 58
|
issue 6
614-634
EN
Forecasting of future economic development quite a short time after the global economic crisis is more than a complicated task. The main uncertainty is linked to the process of recovery of the world economy from the crisis and the direction of governments' economic policies and their corresponding effectiveness. Nevertheless, it is necessary to develop such forecasts, to collect them and compare with different approaches of particular forecasting works. This article represents the approach of the team of the Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences. Forecast is based on the econometric model B_IER SAS ECM 09q4 and is focused on the GDP and its components, the labour market and public budget revenues. The time horizon is limited to years 2010 and 2015 and continues two years beyond the end of the financial programming period of the EU.
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