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1

The system for targeting inflation goals in Hungary

100%
Cseermely A.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 12
1058-1079
EN
The article sums up the economic thinking behind the system for targeting inflation in Hungary and the main economic-policy experiences with this. It presents briefly a framework model that the author sees as best reflecting present central-bank thinking about the functioning of the economy. It summarizes what normative conclusions can be drawn with the model about optimal monetary policy, and how these theoretical issues are reflected in the monetary systems for targeting inflation. The article then turns to international experience with the effectiveness and success of the regime. Finally, the author looks back over five years at the conditions that accompanied the targeting of inflation, at subsequent experiences with the economic-policy issues of that period, and at operation of the system so far.
2

The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary.

100%
Varpalotai V.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 12
1135-1154
EN
The paper presents calculations of the optimal horizons for inflation targeting in Hungary, using small-scale macro and vector auto-regressive models, relying on the theoretical framework of Batini and Nelson (2000). Given the assumed parameter values of central-bank preference, it was found that current National Bank practice, i. e. putting the inflation forecast for the next one to one-and-a-half years into the policy rule and using this horizon in its communication, can be regarded as optimal with respect to welfare analysis. In most cases of potential future shocks, this horizon also proved long enough to bring inflation back on target following an optimal monetary policy. However, there is no precluding the probability of future shocks that divert inflation from its target for longer than one to one-and-a-half years, when MNB follows an optimal monetary policy.
3
Content available remote

Monetary Policy of the Baltic States - new EU Members

100%
Przybylska-Kapuscinska W.
Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo
|
2007
|
issue 19
31-51
EN
On 1 May 2004, new East and Central European states that had made a major breakthrough in their social and economic system found themselves within the European Union area. A fundamental decision of capital importance for their future had been the transformation of centrally planned economies into market economies. This required an extreme determination, consistence and sacrifices, and entailed different social and economic costs. The economies in transformation carried out many indispensable reforms and among them changes in the functioning of the banking sector, development of an independent central bank and choice of a defined monetary policy strategy. The fundamental problem in the monetary policy of the East and Central European countries was the necessity to get under control the high inflation and build up the credibility of their national currencies in the face of both the changing external conditions and the differentiation of the political, economic and social situation in the group of the countries in question. Stabilization of prices on a low level became the main criterion in the adaptation processes of those countries on their road to integration with the European Community structures. This criterion also became the most important determinant of the monetary policy and its strategies adopted by the individual countries running for the EU membership. The paper focused on presentation of the methods adopted by the group of East European Baltic countries in the conduct of their economic policy. Thus, the monetary policy of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia was presented. These three countries distinguish themselves among the new EU members by their geopolitical situation because all of them have emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union and constitute a relatively homogeneous group of economies in transformation. Certain elements of homogeneity can also be observed in the monetary policy adopted by them. In the first part of the paper, the essence of the exchange rate strategy applied in practice by the new Baltic EU member countries was characterized. Then, in consideration of the fact that the most important conditions substantial from the point of view of the monetary policy, and related to the accession of the countries in question to the Eurosystem, were the independence of the central bank and the definition of the main goal of their monetary policy so as to make it compatible with the goal of the European Central Bank, the process of shaping the monetary policy in the individual countries was presented in more detail, in concentrating on the problem of institutional independence of the central bank and on the main goals and instruments of the monetary policy. Also, the course of the inflationary processes over the period of 1997-2005 was monitored.
4

Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experiences and theoretical considerations.

80%
Kiss M. N.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2005
|
vol. 52
|
issue 11
846-872
EN
Although recent years have seen a decline in major central banks' FX market activity, such intervention has remained an active policy tool in several emerging economies and/ or countries applying inflation targeting. The paper surveys the literature on its effectiveness, presenting relevant theories and international empirical evidence and trying to identify aspects that increase effectiveness under various circumstances. Only cautious conclusions can be drawn. Central-bank intervention can be effective, mainly because FX activity by central banks can shape market expectations and influence the process of information aggregation. The effectiveness can be improved by matching objectives with appropriate intervention techniques and matching intervention strategy to circumstances in a flexible way. Intervention aiming at delivering strategic policy objectives is likely to be more efficient if pre-announced, transparent, coordinated with other central banks, and in line with macroeconomic policy. But to reach tactical objectives, central banks should conduct intervention in secret, paying heed to timing, around macro news announcements or during heavy trading volume. Central bankers should keep in mind that intervention - regardless of the chosen technique - affects the exchange rate mainly in the short or medium run. A more permanent shift in exchange rates calls for a change in fundamentals such as monetary-policy action..
5

DO OIL PRICES DEPEND ON THE VALUE OF US DOLLAR ?

80%
Obadi S. M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2006
|
vol. 54
|
issue 3
253-265
EN
This paper deals with oil prices and with their relation on the value of US dollar, and draws some conclusions about their correlation. The author used the annual figures for the main world currencies and oil prices, obtained from many different sources. International commodity prices are mostly expressed in dollars, especially oil prices, or in the terms of the indices based on dollar prices. The oil prices are obviously affected by the inflation and also by the value of the US dollar exchange rate. There is a definite link between the monetary policy, the exchange rates and the other factors and the oil prices, which is analyzed in this paper.
6

MODERN PRINCIPLES OF MONETARY POLICY IN UKRAINE

80%
Danylyshyn O. A.
Rehionalna ekonomika
|
2008
|
issue 3(49)
120-126
EN
The features of money-credit policy of the National bank of Ukraine have been considered. Its principles and conformities to the law on the modern stage of economic development have been analyzed. On the basis of the conducted analysis the necessity of change of the strategic purpose of money-credit policy has been proved and principles of introduction of inflation's targeting in Ukraine have been substantiated.
7

Investment vs. Share Market Profitability

80%
Lon E.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2005
|
vol. 8
|
issue 3(28)
47-58
EN
The article analyses the relation between investments and share market profitability. The research covered the investment effect in the USA and other countries. It measured the monetary policy influence on stock market index Standard & Poors' return rate. The research included also the degree of economy globalisation in a given country to explain the mechanism combining market share values and future investment tendencies in the mature and emerging economies. The researchers compared direct and indirect investment effect in chosen countries. The research proves that FED expansive monetary policy in a year T positively influences and the restrictive one negatively influences share market in the same year. The expansive policy leads also to the much higher investments next year than the restrictive one. Between the stock market index rate in a given year and real investment changes in the next year there is a positive correlation. The value of this relation reflects the strength of investment effect. Its importance describes the indicator measuring the relation between emission revenues and investment expenditure. The characteristic feature of emerging markets is that their share markets predict especially future domestic investment activities. Share market is more effective as a transmission channel than traditional rate. It is visible in all the mature markets. The investment effect can be observed also in the relation between stock exchange index and accompanying changes of business optimism.
8

NON-LINEAR MONETARY POLICY MODELLING WITH GOVERNMENT DEBT AS A THRESHOLD: THE CASE OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC

80%
Bikár M., Hodula M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2018
|
vol. 66
|
issue 6
561 – 579
EN
In this paper, we examine the extent to which monetary policy might be constrained by the evolution of government indebtedness. We employ a threshold vector auto regression (TVAR) model to capture the possible asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and the real economy, corresponding to a switch between low and high growth rates of the government debt-to-GDP ratio. The analysis is performed on Czech data over the 2001 – 2016 periods. The results show that the reaction of a central bank to macroeconomic shocks can be regime-dependent. We find that a rising government debt could constrain monetary policy, which manifests through an altered monetary policy transmission to the real economy. Overall, our study demonstrates the advantages of using a non-linear approach to study the fiscal and monetary policy interactions.
9

UKRAINE'S MONEY-AND-CREDIT MARKET: THE CRISIS LESSONS AND SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS (Hroshovo-kredytnyi rynok Ukrainy: kryzovi uroky ta korotkostrokovi perspektyvy)

80%
Danylenko A. I., Shelud'ko N. M.
Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia (Economics and Forecasting)
|
2010
|
issue 1
9-19
EN
The article generalizes the tendencies of the functioning of Ukraine's money-and-credit market during the crisis period. The authors evaluate the adequacy of the current anti-crisis money-and-credit policy and outline the key challenges and risks for the monetary and credit sphere of Ukraine's economy in the current year.
10
Content available remote

MONETARY POLICY UNDER CONDITIONS OF 'NAIRU' FLATTENING

80%
Balcerzak A.
Olsztyn Economic Journal
|
2009
|
vol. 4
|
issue 1
95-105
EN
The last decades represent a period of global economy fast transformation, which is reflected in the real life and leads to changes in relations between the situation in the labour market and the inflation processes. Those changes are frequently referred to as 'NAIRU' flattening. It can be expected that it will bring important consequences for the process of national monetary policy development in individual countries. The aim of the paper is to present analysis of the influence of NAIRU flattening on the effectiveness of the national monetary policy and effectiveness of its tools.
11

Level and Structure of the Monetary Base in Poland

80%
Jedruchniewicz A.
Pieniądze i Więź
|
2008
|
vol. 11
|
issue 3(40)
151-160
EN
Monetary base is one of these economical categories which play the particular role not only in monetary policy but also in whole economy. The main aim of the article was to present changes and structure of monetary base in Poland, as well as to define causes of these changes. In analyzed period (2001-2007) volume of the monetary base systematically increased (+53,9 billion PLN). Financial reserve accrual's variations were caused by unequal level of debt of household and enterprises, foreign assets' influx into Poland, and most of all operations of the central bank.
12

The main features of Hungary's monetary transmission mechanism

80%
Vonnak B.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 12
1155-1177
EN
This paper attempts to aggregate and summarize fresh findings on the monetary transmission mechanism in Hungary. Within a research project at the National Bank of Hungary, nine studies have appeared that investigate the channels through which Hungarian monetary policy affects the economy. This paper creates a framework for synthesizing particular results, based on Mishkin's (1996) classification, and analyses how aggregate demand is affected through these channels. The conclusion is that in the last ten years, monetary policy has exerted measurable influence on real activity and prices. The dominance of the exchange-rate channel explains why prices respond faster and output responds more mildly than in closed developed economies like the United States or the Euro Zone. We expect that after Hungary's adoption of the euro, the absence of an exchange rate will be compensated by the fact that the interest-rate channel will work through foreign demand as well, so that no significant monetary-transmission asymmetries can be expected when the country is inside the Euro Zone.
13

SPÔSOB VÝKONU MENOVEJ POLITIKY – MENOVÉ PRAVIDLÁ, ALEBO DISKRÉTNE OPATRENIA?

80%
Mičúch M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2011
|
vol. 59
|
issue 3
296 – 309
EN
Paper deals with theoretical debate on various approaches to monetary policy. It introduces ideas of two economic schools emphasizing monetary policy rules contrary to discretion. Proposed arguments reflect standpoints of on-going debate from 20th century up to present days. Source of theoretical arguments advocating policy rules are economic schools of monetarism and rational expectations. On the other hand, swig to discretion defend schools of Keynesianism. Summarized are key arguments of the both. The article contributes to academic debate even in situation of impaired competences of local central bank in domain of monetary policy.
14

MUNDELLOV - FLEMINGOV MODEL V REŽIME PEVNÉHO A VOĽNÉHO VÝMENNÉHO KURZU – POHĽAD NA VÝVOJ SLOVENSKEJ KORUNY

80%
Ivaničová Z.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2006
|
vol. 54
|
issue 1
36-51
EN
The paper is focused on the appreciation of the Slovak currency, which started to be a more significant in the second part of the year 2002. The application of the international relations (purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and Fischer relation) is not sufficiently successful for currency analysis. Therefore it is efficient to extend this analysis on monetary policy based on the balance of national bank and particular accounts of the balance of payments. The Mundell-Fleming model, its total differential formulation, appears as the actual instrument for the mentioned analysis. The recent process of the evaluation of the Slovak crown corresponds to the theoretical deduction of the Mundell-Fleming model.
15

INFLATIONS TARGETING AS AN OPTIMUM MODE OF MONETARY POLICY IN UKRAINE (Tarhetuvannia infliatsii iak optymalnyi rezhym monetarnoi polityky v Ukraini)

80%
Hnativ O. A.
Rehionalna ekonomika
|
2009
|
issue 2(52)
119-125
EN
The problems of the current mode of the monetary structure in Ukraine have been analysed. Optimum mode of monetary policy on the modern stage of the country economic development has been determined. The comparative analysis of macroeconomic development of Ukraine and other countries who passed to inflation targeting has been given.
16

THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

80%
Caraiani P.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2008
|
vol. 56
|
issue 6
537-550
EN
In this paper the author uses an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and estimates it for Romanian economy using the Bayesian techniques. He estimates then the impact of domestic and external monetary policy shocks. The domestic interest shocks produce strong effects on output and exchange rate, and moderate ones on inflation. The effects are not very persistent. The results show that the monetary policy shocks from Euro Area do matter for Romanian economy, but in moderate way. Overall, monetary policy in Romania is found to be less gradual but more conservative than the ECB one.
17

THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLES AND MONETARY POLICY - THE US CASE

80%
Belke A., Wiedmann M.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2006
|
vol. 54
|
issue 9
898-917
EN
This paper attempts to provide an answer on the question - whether the recent surge in the US real estate prices is fundamentally driven, or whether the current situation reflects the 'bubble' symptoms. Implicitly, also monetary policy in the euro area in these days is addressed as well with France and Spain experiencing exorbitant price increases of the real estate during at least the last four years. Our aim is to divide the valuation of the US housing market into a 'bubble' component and into a fundamentally justified component. For this purpose, the US real estate market and its peculiarities are described and the empirical indications of a bubble are identified. We contrast the empirical results with the ongoing question whether the asset prices and the asset price bubbles are and should be a matter of attention of the central bank authorities in the process of the monetary policy making.
18

MEASURING MONETARY POLICY IN EMERGING ECONOMY: THE ROLE OF MONETARY CONDITION INDEX

80%
Thanh Trung B.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2022
|
vol. 70
|
issue 6
499 – 522
EN
Measuring the stance of monetary policy is of importance for the analysis and implementation of monetary policy. In emerging economies, the popular use of multiple instrument framework as well as the significance of interest rate channel and exchange rate channel implies that monetary condition index (MCI) can play an important role in evaluating the timing of tightening or loosing monetary policy. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the role of MCI as an overall measure of monetary policy in emerging economy that follow inflation targeting by using the VAR model. The weight of MCI components, exchange rate and interest rate, is derived from the inflation equation in the VAR model. It shows that exchange rate plays a significant role but its weight is less than that of interest rate in most emerging economies. Furthermore, the empirical results show that inflation shows a reduction after a contractionary shock of monetary policy in most emerging economies. The finding implies that MCI is a useful indicator that can predict changes in the stance of monetary policy and the trend in inflation.
19

Polityka fiskalna i monetarna zakonu krzyżackiego

80%
Żurek Ł.
Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
|
2012
|
issue 879
81-91
EN
The Teutonic Order, as an institution acting both in the sacrum and profane spheres, permanently influenced the economic development not only of Western Europe, where its centers were located, but also and even more importantly Prussian territory, and by virtue of the trade the knights carried out, the whole of Europe. The fiscal and monetary policy of the Teutonic Order was treated instrumentally by the organisation’s authorities. It helped the Order to achieve its primary goals, namely the power of community and the wealth that grew out of it. A stable currency and adapting of the tax system to the prevailing socio-economic conditions were not favourable enough circumstances for the Order to make the reforms required to not only progress but also ensure the stable functioning of the body politic. The worsened economic situation, deteriorating at the hands of war, revealed negligence in handling monetary stability and the already too high tax burden increased recession, which contributed to the fall of the Order and the secularisation of the state. The efficient rule of the monastic state observed until the 14th century was complemented by equally efficient monetary and tax policy, and benefited the order in that it induced general economic growth in Prussia. However, the lack of suitable tax reforms and inappropriate measures in the monetary sphere by depreciation and deterioration of money in the 15th and 16th centuries led to the gradual fall of the monastic state.
20

KOORDINACE FISKÁLNÍ A MONETÁRNÍ POLITIKY SLOVENSKA PRIZMATEM TEORIE HER

80%
Janků J., Kappel S., Kučerová Z.
Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
|
2015
|
vol. 63
|
issue 1
51 – 71
EN
The problem of monetary and fiscal policy coordination is discussed both in countries with independent economic policies and in countries with a single currency. The aim of this article is to discuss and empirically assess the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy in Slovakia from Q1/2000 to Q2/2013, identify significant macroeconomic variables influencing the decisions of main economic-policy authorities in the analysed country and make conclusions concerning the cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies using the game theory approach. In the article, regression analysis and ordinary least squares methods are used. According to the empirical results, the conflict between monetary and fiscal policy in Slovakia is identified. The stabilizing role of fiscal policy and problematic stabilizing role of monetary policy is confirmed. It contrasts with the other states of the Visegrad group.
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