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1

Hungarian fiscal policy: 'quo vadis'?

100%
Orban G., Szapary G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 4
293-309
EN
The study reviews the causes and macroeconomic effects of the persistently high budget deficit in Hungary in recent years and then outlines the possible directions of a solution. A concise theoretical account is followed by analysis of the process of loosening fiscal policy and its effect on external equilibrium and the country's risk rating. Attention is drawn to the dangers that a chronic budget deficit poses to long-term balanced growth. Finally, without aiming at completeness, the authors draw some conclusions for economic policy.
2

The Hungarian pension system: economic-policy and demographic challenges.

100%
Orban G., Palotai D.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2006
|
vol. 53
|
issue 7/8
583-603
EN
The paper reassesses the sustainability of the reformed Hungarian pension system, focusing especially on whether the introduction of the fully funded pillar in 1998 has led to any improvement in the sustainability of the pension system. After a brief description of the 1997/8 reform of the pension system, the results from simulations with a revised pension model are presented. These show that 1) unless corrective measures are taken, the pension system is unsustainable, with net implicit public liabilities in the system of around 230 per cent of GDP; 2) the series of policy measures taken since the 1997/8 reform account for the major part of the net liability implicit in the pension system - they reflect a policy reversal and run the risk of completely undoing the progress made by the reform in improving the system's sustainability; 3) the funded pillar can help in lowering net implicit liabilities, but only if the transition costs involved in the reform are financed by budgetary adjustment; 4) the returns recorded so far in the private pension funds fall short of expectations and appear to be low in international comparison, too. If such returns persist, the benefits provided by the multi-pillar system will fall short not only of initial expectations, but also of the benefits received from the full pay-as-you-go system..
3

The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states

100%
Orban G., Szapary G.
Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
|
2004
|
vol. 51
|
issue 9
810-831
EN
The paper sets out to examine the fiscal characteristics of new members in the light of the requirements of the SGP and criticisms levelled against the pact, and to see in what ways new members' initial conditions differ from those faced by current Euro-zone countries, in the run-up to adoption of the Euro. Overall, because of the lower debt levels and greater yield convergence already achieved, the new members will be able to rely less on gains from yield convergence than the current Euro-zone members were able to do. EU accession will also have a negative net impact on the budgets of new members in the early years of membership. The authors look at the cyclical sensitivities of the budgets and find that for new members, the smoothing capacity of the automatic stabilizers may be weaker than for current Euro-zone members. Also emphasized, apart from these general characteristics, are large differences in the starting fiscal positions of new members. Some policy implications of these findings are discussed.
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