SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA MITIGATION SCENARIOS IN SLOVAKIA
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The aim of this paper is to assess the expected socio-economic impacts of various scenarios of pandemic influenza mitigation on the economy and mortality for Slovakia. Compared to similar past studies (e.g. Van Genugten et al. (2003)), the authors' approach bears a significant difference. Whereas those studies work from the very beginning with the expected values of the data, they have treated the data as well as the model parameters as random variables. Results in the form of probability distributions and their characteristics (expected values and tolerance intervals) were obtained by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations of random impacts on 5,400,000 inhabitants of Slovakia. Six scenarios of pandemic mitigation have been analyzed. Total costs of medical treatment, the number of casualties as well as social costs with casualties included were compared.
- Pavol Brunovsky, Univerzita Komenskeho, Fakulta matematiky, fyziky a informatiky, Katedra aplikovanej matematiky a statistiky, Mlynska dolina, 842 48 Bratislava 4, Slovak Republic
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