Projekcje umieralności – metodologia oraz założenia w prognozach ONZ dla Polski
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The mortality projections are the base of population prospects and a starting point of all fore- casts. Mortality is projected on the basis of models of change of life expectancy produced by the United Nations Population Division. The selection of a model for each country is based on recent trends in life expectancy by sex. A comparisons between mortality changes (life expectancy, infant mortality) and forecast show that extrapolation doesn't give good results for exceptional periods - e.g. in Poland during crisis of health period.
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