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EN
Aim/purpose – Owing to the huge risk occasioned by negative contagion effects associ-ated with financial market linkages, markets participants and academia have continued to examine the capital market cross country interdependence at different levels. In this paper, we examined the causal relationships among the U.S., China and some top Afri-can capital market indexes. Design/methodology/approach – To examine the mean and variance causal effects, we estimated a univariate AR-EGARCH model for all capital market indexes. Then em-ployed the residual-based two-step bivariate cross-correlation function (CCF) test devel-oped by Cheung & Ng (1996). The test statistics had a well-defined asymptotic standard distribution that was robust to distributional assumptions. Findings – We detected both the feedback and unidirectional causality effects among African capital markets. These results show that African financial markets are still not fully integrated within the African continent. Expectedly, the results from our empirical analysis showed the existence of a unidirectional causality both in mean and variance from the U.S. and Chinese markets to African capital markets. This demonstrated that events in the U.S. and China are not irrelevant to African markets. Research implications – Owing to the fact that knowledge of other financial markets provides adequate information about a market situation, the results from this research paper will be helpful for the policymakers of African countries in shaping their econom-ic policies, help investors diversify investments with less risk, and international portfolio managers make portfolio allocation decisions. Originality/value/contribution – This paper examined the mean and risk dynamics of three top African, the U.S., and Chinese capital markets with their inter-dependence using the CCF approach. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge, no previous re-search paper on this issue exists.
EN
The aims of paper are to analyze how closely Central European stock markets are integrated with the stock markets in the US,UK and the euro area and to investigate the correlation of changes in the US S&P500, UK FTSE100, DJ EUROSTOXX 50 yields on the yields of the Polish and other main Central European stock exchange markets. The authors has formulated following hypothesis: Czech, Hungarian and Polish equity markets are more integrated with the US and UK equity markets then with the euro area market. What are the implications of such close integration. What are the implications of such close integration. The econometric methods are applied in analysis. The analysis has confirmed hypothesis.(original abstract)
EN
In the literature, price adjustment delay is treated as one of the consequences of market frictions. The problem was probably first defined in (Fama, Fisher, Jensen, Roll, 1969), where the authors dealt with adjustment delay of asset prices to new information. Fama (1970) used the notion of price adjustment delay in the context of the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Chordia and Swaminathan (2000) proposed a measure of equity prices adjustment delay to information. To incorporate the nonsynchronous trading effect into the measure, they employed Dimson's (1979) beta regression procedure. The main goal of this paper is to investigate the problem of asset prices adjustment delay in the case of stocks from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, in the period Jan 2007-Dec 2012.
EN
The aim of the paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of selected investment strategies applied to the Polish stock market. In the research there were taken into consideration strategies formulated in accordance with the technical trading rules, the essence of which is to determine the moments of the generation of buy or sell signals of the financial instruments. In the paper different systems of moving averages were calculated for the selected indexes on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. To evaluate the effectiveness of comparable investment strategies, there are applied common measures of portfolio management quality created on the base of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, as the Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Jensen's index, Sharpe alpha and measures of market timing.
EN
The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of debt changes on enterprises value at Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2005–2010. Several capital structure theories were presented in the first part of the paper. In the second part the empirical model was constructed based on the company and market specific data obtained from the companies financial statements and stock quotations. The most important conclusion is that the increases in companies` debt causes decreases in their market value during the time of global financial crisis. Positive impact on companies valuation have also the net earnings and market behavio
EN
The article discusses the issue of a model approach to dividend policies from the point of view of an investor and an emitent. The point of view of the investor was presented as a possibility of creating portfolios of securities made only of dividend companies in comparison to a popular method of creating dividend portfolios: the Markowitz method. On the other hand, an approach to dividend policies from the point of view of an emitent of securities was described as a possibility of applying fuzzy numbers and logit models in creating the strategy of the division of a company's profit. In addition, in the article the specificity of dividends and a potential influence of the paid out dividend on the behavior of the listings of shares of the companies was described
PL
Celem opracowania jest przedstawienie efektywności lokaty strukturyzowanej przez pryzmat osiągniętej stopy zwrotu oraz próba odpowiedzi na pytania, czy lokaty strukturyzowane zapewniają inwestorom satysfakcjonujący zysk oraz czy inwestycja w produkt strukturyzowany jest rzeczywiście związana z zyskiem przewyższającym tradycyjne formy pomnażania kapitału? (fragment tekstu)
EN
The aim of the paper is to present the efficiency of the structured deposit depending on the achieved rate of return and attempt to answer the questions - whether structured deposits provide investors with satisfactory earnings and an investment in a structured product is effectively connected with a profit superior to traditional forms of accumulating capital. The Author further characterized the structured deposit. The study was conducted for the period 01.01.2000- -31.12.2013. Then 690 structured deposits were completed and for each net investment income was designated. The rate of return of completed structured deposits was compared with an average annual interest rate on bank deposits for 12 months, and inflation. (original abstract)
EN
To begin, the article verifying of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) would be appropriate for capital asset valuation on the Greek capital market. We examined 32 companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) on a weekly basis for a period from June 2009 to December 2013 under this model. The CAPM model is tested by performing two-pass characteristic regression analyses. The first-pass characteristic line regression was used to estimate stocks of beta. Hence, the second-pass characteristic line regression was taken to analyze the intercept and the slope coefficients of stocks. The two characteristics of line regression verify the adequacy of the CAPM. According to our results, we came to a conclusion that there was a linear relationship between systematic risk and returns. The CAPM would be the verification of our major hypotheses from the time series tests. In order for this to be true, the intercept ought to be approximately equal to zero, supporting the theories for both individual assets and portfolios. However, the testing provides evidence against the CAPM, but do they do? It should be kept in mind that it does not necessarily represent evidence in favor of any alternative model. (original abstract)
PL
Zmieniające się warunki prowadzenia działalności gospodarczej na rynku polskim, związane z nasilającymi się procesami internacjonalistycznymi oraz globalizacyjnymi są częstą przyczyną zmian charakteru i sposobu koncentracji kapitału. Fuzje i przejęcia są jednymi z typowych rozwiązań dających przedsiębiorstwom szansę na rozwój i osiągnięcie przewagi konkurencyjnej. Z drugiej strony są źródłem wielu rodzajów ryzyka o charakterze specyficznym, typowym dla tego typu procesów. W artykule przedstawiono wybrane problemy towarzyszące koncentracji kapitału we współczesnej gospodarce rynkowej.
EN
The changing conditions of conducting business activities in the Polish market, associated with the intensifying internationalism and globalization processes, are a frequent cause of changes in the nature and way of capital concentration. Mergers and acquisitions are one of the typical solutions which give companies the chance to develop and achieve competitive advantage. On the other hand, they are a source of many types of specific risks, typical of this type of processes. The article presents selected problems associated with the concentration of capital in the modern market economy.
EN
Venture capital and private equity funds are a new instrument for financing the development of young and innovative companies. Their functioning is affected by many factors especially form the public markets, but despite many changes, these funds continue to invest in young innovative companies, which are characterized by above-average investment risk rewarded unparalleled rate of return. It is characterized by a huge dispersion encountered in other investments called alternative or public. Activity funds is cyclical, so the purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of public markets on venture capital activity.
PL
Problem dotyczy zabezpieczenia zobowiązania na skończonym rynku niezupełnym, gdy budżet nie wystarczy na pokrycie zobowiązania we wszystkich stanach. Wykorzystuje się postępowanie dwustopniowe. Po pierwsze, dla danego zobowiązania maksymalizuje się średni współczynnik sukcesu, którego argumentem jest zrandomizowany test. Po drugie, dla zobowiązania zmodyfikowanego za pomocą otrzymanego zrandomizowanego testu poszukuje się optymalnej strategii zabezpieczającej. W pierwszym etapie, po dyskretyzacji zbioru funkcji prawdopodobieństwa martyngałowego i cen sprzedaży zobowiązania, sprowadzamy maksymalizację zrandomizowanego testu do skończonego ciągu zadań programowania liniowego. Wyprowadzamy także kryterium osiągalności zmodyfikowanego zobowiązania. Drugi etap zależy od osiągalności zmodyfikowanego zobowiązania. Jeżeli jest ono osiągalne, to może być zreplikowane i strategia replikująca jest rozwiązaniem problemu osłony. Jeżeli nie jest ono osiągalne, to szukamy strategii, która jest rozwiązaniem układu nierówności nadosłony. Warunki nadosłony są sformułowane przy użyciu cen sprzedaży zobowiązania charakterystycznych dla modelu zdyskretyzowanego
EN
The paper concerns the hedging of the claim in a finite incomplete market when the initial ammount is not sufficient to cover the claim in all states. We use the two steps procedure. First, for the given claim we maximize the average success ratio dependent on the randomize test. Second, for the modified optimal claim with the obtained above test, we look for the optimal strategy. In the first step, after discretization of the martingale probability functions set and the upper hedging prices, we reduce the maximization of the randomized test to some finite set of linear programming problems. We also deduce the replicability criterion for the optimal modified claim. The second step depends on the replicability of the optimal modified claim. If it is replicable, then the replicating strategy is the solution of the hedging problem. If not, we need to look for the strategy solving the system of superhedging inequalities. The superhedging conditions are formulated using the upper hedging prices due to the discretization of the model.
EN
The persistence of traditional approach to the management of small enterprises is the reason why in recent decades the managers of small and large entities have diverged increasingly in their decisions. Business management in the early twenty-first century has been dominated by a concept of focusing business activities on the growth of the business value. The question arises whether it will change the approach of small enterprises to the role of the capital market in their development. The paper shows studies on how small entrepreneurs perceive the capital market in Poland as a potential source of equity capital.
EN
The aim of this work is to present models to support an investor in decision making, which includes new market tendencies. The process of investing into financial markets is a dynamic process depending on frequent changes, witch direction and impact is difficult to predict in the long periods of time. The article presents theoretical basis and practical applications of selected quantity methods that can be used in building investing strategy, where elements of fractal analyses and of classical statistics theories are included. The new approach to create a model of securities, based on fractal analysis with Hölder function is an alternative to classical models. The article consists of two basic parts. The first presents formulas and references as well as applied methods for data analyses; the other is of empiric character.
EN
We deal with the finite complete arbitrage free financial market model. There are given a liability ( as selling an european option) and an initial amount lower than the initial value of the liability. The quantile hedging is based upon the generalized Neyman- Pearson lemma, but this approach don't give all information on the optimal solution in the considered case. In the present paper the optimal randomized test is analysed with some methods of the mathematical programming. It is showed that the minimal generalized density of probabilities equals the needed lower quantil. Moreover we construct the optimal solutions set. It is the basis to formulate the sufficient condition of the classical quantile hedging.
PL
Wydaje się, że uczestnicy warszawskiej GPW zapamiętają 2013 r. jako okres istotnych zmian i nowości. Opóźnione, ale skuteczne i niemal bezawaryjne wdrożenie nowego systemu obsługującego parkiet (UTP), jak również reforma w segmencie instrumentów pochodnych poprzez w praktyce zastąpienie dotychczasowego najpopularniejszego kontraktu FW20 nowym FW30 o podwojonym mnożniku oraz wprowadzenie szerszego indeksu blue-chipów (WIG30) zrewolucjonizowały ofertę GPW. Artykuł jest próbą oceny nowych rozwiązań polskiego rynku kapitałowego i wyróżnia potencjalne zagrożenia w zaproponowanych zmianach. Postawiono w nim pytanie o ich sens i przydatność w kontekście dotychczasowego funkcjonowania warszawskiego parkietu, jak i w porównaniu z giełdami bardziej rozwiniętymi.
EN
Cumulated turnover of derivatives significantly exceeds trading volume on stock exchanges. Thus, in practice, derivatives became basic investment instrument. Importance of secure turnover and guarantee of solvency appreciated. One of the elements making settlements sure is margin. Financial institutions set it on the level that results from their margin policy. This article points problems and aims of adjusting margins for traders - margin as collateral and margin "image" as marketing tool.
PL
Zamierzeniem niniejszego opracowania była weryfikacja zawartości informacyjnej raportów bieżących traktujących o dokonaniu odpisu aktualizującego z tytułu utraty wartości aktywów. Przeprowadzając szczegółową analizę treści udostępnianych inwestorom komunikatów, autor stara się zbadać, jak największe spółki polskiego rynku kapitałowego informują o aktualizacji majątku będącego w ich posiadaniu. Ma to na celu weryfikację, czy trafiająca na rynek kapitałowy informacja o stanie majątkowym emitentów oparta jest o aktualne wartości aktywów. Analiza obejmuje lata 2013-2018. Wybrany okres jest nieprzypadkowy ze względu na wejście w życie w 2016 r. Rozporządzenia w sprawie nadużyć na rynku (MAR).
EN
All stakeholders need true and fair view of conducted business activity. Current value of assets is one of the most important information for them. Therefore, many issuers verify obtainable value of income from owned assets. For this task, in case of impairment value of assets, is necessary to make a write-down. Main objective of this purpose is ascertainment that the biggest companies of Warsaw Stock Exchange communicate in current reports situation concerning their assets impairment. For this purpose I identified all available current reports in 2013-2018 for the stock companies grouped in WIG20 and mWIG40 indices. Results are astonishing – only 35% of them communicate in current reports information about impairment of assets before the revelation of their periodic reports. It can mean that stock investors are based on outdated information concerning assets value of these companies.
EN
Considered in developing the financial model of the exemplification of the market refers to the complete markets. Developed the idea not-self-financing the strategy at a fair valuation of the possible options. The appropriate development of this theme is the introduction to the issue of the financial model of incomplete markets and to structure the equity portfolio under the assumption of statistical indeterminacy. The derived formulas in the article is a basic introduction to the analysis of the financial market, but the aspect of perspective on this subject with seemingly very formalized, leading to appraise the relevant hedging approach equivalent security. The following article about the chaotic financial data responsive to capital markets. Examined aspect of distinguishing chaotic and stochastic defined in terms of looking at this problem. Discusses the correlation dimension as an assessment of the degree of chaos in time series data. Attention has been returned to the issue in various applications possible solutions to the tasks for the reconstruction of the evolution operator of futures markets. The basic premise is that any choice of non-linearities without introducing a priori information or special prior studies do not always object to select the successful reconstruction.
EN
The dynamic development of the investment funds market in Poland lets us carry out research regarding different aspects of their functioning. A potential participant of the funds must especially answer such questions as: Which fund should he choose?, Has already chosen fund got any chances to become the leader for a longer period of time? The work is devoted to one of the variants of answering the problem that is being discussed, especially it analyses the repetitiveness of the FIO investment results achieved in 2003-2007 and 2007-2011. From the funds' customers' points of view, this is a fundamental issue because entrusting their savings with a "good" fund, one wants to know whether it still will be achieving satisfactory investment results. Maybe a good ranking position at a certain moment is accidental? The research was done on the funds from different risk categories such as equity funds, balanced ones.
XX
Celem artykułu jest próba dokonania analizy osiągania i utrzymywania wysokich pozycji w rankingach stóp zwrotu funduszy inwestycyjnych. Autorzy postawili tezę, że wyniki inwestycyjne funduszu inwestycyjnego charakteryzują się brakiem długotrwałej stabilności. W celu zweryfikowania tezy, zastosowano współczynnik korelacji rang Spearmana oraz współczynnik konkordacji Kendalla i Babingtona-Smitha. Przeprowadzono analizę w kilku etapach: w pierwszej kolejności przedstawiono rezultaty pomiaru skuteczności prognostycznej rozumianej jako zależność rankingu według rocznych stóp zwrotu od rankingu według stóp zwrotu sprzed roku, a następnie zależnie od rankingów sprzed trzech i pięciu lat. Na końcu przeanalizowano, czy kolejność funduszy w rankingach rocznych pozostawała stabilna. Badaniem objęto 101 funduszy inwestycyjnych otwartych i specjalistycznych (oraz ich subfunduszy) działających na polskim rynku kapitałowym w latach 1998-2007.
EN
The aim of this paper is the analysis of the degree of stability of mutual funds performance (diversification between the funds' positions in various rankings in terms of the return rates achieved in the years 1998-2007). The attempt of evaluating the changes that have taken place in the analyzed period of time was also made. The authors used the Kendall's and Babington-Smith's ratio and Spearman's rank correlation ratio for this purpose. The survey took up 101 open investment funds and specialized open funds functioning on the Polish capital market in the years 1998-2007. The evaluation indicated that even the most successful funds managers were not able to achieve stable above-average performance and maintain it for a long time. The rankings analysis revealed that none of the Polish investment funds systematically generated results better than those achieved by other professional investors or relevant benchmarks. A significant variability of the return rates was observed in the different periods, instead of constant, systematically generated, above-average rates of return.(original abstract)
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