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EN
In this paper we approach the problem of forecasting the key variables in labour market: registered unemployed persons in the Silesian Voivodeship, structure of registered unemployed persons by sex, age and by duration of unemployment. We analyse stability of unemployment trends models and apply the change point detection procedure. Results indicate increasing trends of number of unemployment in some analysed groups in the recent years. This is crucially important from the point of view of regional social and economic development. In the paper we also argue that the segmented trend models are very useful for forecasting and modeling the unemployment structure in the Silesian Voivodeship. As a result of the research conducted a growing tendency in the number of unemployed in the selected market segments has been observed. This is a disturbing phenomenon from the point of view of social and economic development of the Silesian Voivodeship. Furthermore significant usefulness of segment trend models for modeling and forecasting unemployment structures in the Silesian Voivodeship has been demonstrated.
EN
An unemployment is a key social-economic problem and its causes have a various character. A very important determinant of unemployment phenomenon on regional and local labour market seems to be a progressive process of economy globalisation that causes structural changes of an international trade. This situation has an unprofitable influence on regional and local economy in countries where is observed a fast rise of importation, decrease of labour participation in a trade or transferring a business activity abroad. The European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EFG) was set up in 2006 as an instrument of a financial supporting to trade and regional labour markets in the EU member countries that were particularly offended by effects of global economy changes. Projects that are financed from this fund aim also a remission of negative influence of worldwide crisis 2008-2009 on labour market functioning. The polish regions such as Podkarpacie or Wielkopolska benefited from the EFGG funds. It is noticed that a procedure of financial supporting gain from EFG is very complicated and its simplification would contribute to rise of effectiveness of this instrument in regional labour markets activation.
XX
Celem opracowania jest próba statystycznej analizy procesów σ- i β-konwergencji i dywergencji cech opisujących sytuację na rynku pracy w województwach. Analizę przeprowadzono na podstawie danych statystycznych dotyczących powiatowych stóp bezrobocia rejestrowanego oraz płac realnych brutto za lata 2002-2009, które są dostępne na stronie GUS (www.stat.gov.pl). (fragment tekstu)
EN
The authors present a statistical analysis of the feature convergence and divergence processes describing the situation on the labor markets in voivodships. The analysis was conducted based on CSO data on the poviat registered unemployment rates and real gross wages. The paper discusses the theoretical aspects of the processes of σ- and β-convergence and real divergence and presents an analysis of intra-regional differences in registered unemployment rates and real gross wages as well as o-process of convergence and divergence, and then estimates the parameters of ff-convergence and divergence equations of the analyzed features. (original abstract)
EN
The purpose of this article is to present selected results of a study, which was conducted among foreigners studying at universities in Opole Province. The research was run between 82 people, among whom 91.5% were students from countries outside the EU (most of them were Ukrainians), and 8.5% were students from countries outside the EU. During the study it was found that the vast majority of students from outside the EU pay for studies in Poland, and the persons from the EU don't. The largest part of the expenditure of foreign students absorb the fees associated with accommodation and the purchase of food. In both case - students from EU and non-EU countries the most frequently reported source of financing study and stay in Poland was money obtained from the parents. Interesting is that, in the case of people from non-EU countries were also mentioned taking work (while studying in Poland or during the holidays) and use obtained in this way money to finance their studies. By comparison, none of the people from the EU - countries taking part in the study did not mention the personal earnings to finance their studies.
EN
The main purpose of this study is to describe selected aspects of the modern labour market of the Silesian voivodeship and to show these factors, of which meaning will grow in the future. Particularly, demographic conditionality of labor market in future was an object of the interest. A so-called the jobless growth was another considered problem. In order to de-scribe the relation between the economic growth rate and the employment growth rate in the Silesian voivodeship a segmented regression model was applied. The last part of the paper was devoted to problems of the innovation of the economy. The analysis of the relationship between the gross expenses on the research and development (domestic and provincial) and the value GDP was conducted.
XX
Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie dostępnych informacji o dojazdach do pracy oraz możliwości przeprowadzenia na ich podstawie charakterystyki rynku pracy w przekrojach regionalnych - na poziomie województw, powiatów i gmin. O ważności podjętej problematyki dojazdów do pracy może świadczyć fakt, że więcej niż co czwarta osoba zatrudniona w Polsce pracuje poza swoim miejscem zamieszkania. (fragment tekstu)
EN
The aim of the article is to draw the reader's attention to the possibility to use information on data concerning commutes to work. Surveying them, we can deepen our knowledge on particular regions as well as on situation on their labour markets. The most frequently reasons of the starting work outside residence place were discussed in the study. One should pay attention to the diversity of the commute to work intensity between urban and rural areas in Poland and in Wielkopolskie voivodship. The influence of a distance to big cities on the intensity of commutes to work was analyzed on the example of poviats and communes of the Wielkopolskie voivodship. (original abstract)
XX
W Polsce zjawisko bezrobocia ma niepokojąco wysokie rozmiary, a jedną z jego cech szczególnych oprócz trwałości w czasie jest duże zróżnicowanie regionalne. Celem opracowania jest próba sformułowania prognoz stóp bezrobocia dla poszczególnych województw w Polsce. Narzędziem analiz i prognozowania wielkości stóp bezrobocia w ujęciu regionalnym jest model składający się z 16 równań, pozornie niezależnych, prognozowanych łącznie. Równania modelu weryfikowano na danych kwartalnych: od IV kwartału 1996 do III kwartału 2005 r. Otrzymane wysokie, ponad 95%, stopnie objaśnienia zmiennych oraz znaki ocen parametrów są zgodne z oczekiwaniami. Zastosowanie modelu wielorównaniowego o równaniach pozornie niezależnych do szacowania i prognozowania stóp bezrobocia w regionach dało zadowalające rezultaty. Wyniki opracowania mogą być podstawą do bardziej szczegółowej analizy wpływu innych zmiennych objaśniających na stopę bezrobocia w poszczególnych regionach Polski. (abstrakt oryginalny)
EN
The unemployment in Poland is characterised by its persistency and substantial regional differentiation. The empirical analysis was conducted on the basis of quarterly registered unemployment rates observed in the years 1996—2005, with specification o each administrative region taken into account. The application of the multivariate dynamic model with seemingly unrelated equations, to forecasting rates of unemployment in the regions in question has generated some positive results and may become the basis for further, more detailed analysis of some influence of other explanatory variables on the rates of unemployment in particular administrative regions in Poland. (original abstract)
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