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W artykule autor opisuje wpływ, jaki wywarło twierdzenie Bayesa nie tylko na rozwój teorii prawdopodobieństwa i wnioskowania statystycznego, ale też jako niezwykle użyteczne narzędzie w podejmowaniu decyzji w sytuacjach niepewności.
EN
The Author recalls that 250 years ago in the British scientific circles ap-peared theorem of probability of causes, now called Bayes' theorem (formulated in 1763 by Thomas Bayes). It refers to the situation where there has been some events and once need to assess the probability of another incident which was the reason, i.e. what is cause and what is the effect of this event. Despite the passing years Bayes' approach in statistical surveys for the conditional probability of occurrence is constantly confirmed and important. (original abstract)
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Autor omówił znaczenie twórczości Bernoulliego dla teorii prawdopodobieństwa. Rozważaa rozwój różnych komponentów badań reprezentacyjnych, a także znaczenie metod uzyskiwania danych od wybranych jednostek w rozmaitych typach badań. Autor wspomina również o pracach Eurostatu w zakresie jakości, zmierzających do wprowadzenia globalnego zarządzania jakością w badaniach reprezentacyjnych.
EN
The author discusses the importance of Jacob Bernoulli's theorem, published in 1713, for the development of sample surveys, next mentioning the many prominent mathematicians, statisticians and other scientists who developed the idea of the methods used in implementation of the modern sample surveys in the last three hundred years. He starts with showing on the basis of this theorem, why a sample from a population should be selected, using random numbers, to generalize the estimates for the whole population with a certain precision. Next, different methods of sample selection, estimation methods, modes of data collection, using data from different sources, and methods of data analysis in the last three hundredyears are generally discussed. At the end some conclusions related to data quality undertaken by Eurostat are given. (original abstract)
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