Search results

1

A novel approach to estimating the debt capacity of European SMEs

100%

Karas M., Režňáková M.

Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy

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2023

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vol. 18

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issue 2

551-581

EN

Research background: The concept of debt capacity assumes that a maximum value of debt ratio exists that when exceeded triggers unfavourable consequences, such as drop in market value, default or a change in the business' creditworthiness. With the current state of the art there is a priori no theoretical assurance that such a specific value exists, or rather it is represented by an interval of values. Beyond that, our understanding of debt capacity is often limited to a theoretical approximation by firm-specific factors, while the context of macroeconomic factors, especially those critical for SMEs, is neglected. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach to estimating SMEs' debt capacity. Further, the aim is to answer the question of what firm-level and macroeconomy conditions lead to exhausting the SMEs' debt capacity and under what conditions a specific value of maximum debt capacity could be estimated. Methods: To estimate the debt capacity, we suggest a use of an information entropy minimising heuristic and the Minimal Description Length Principle. In this approach, the observed feature space is categorised into several regions. In this case, such a region represents a set of firm- and macroeconomy-specific conditions forming the debt capacity of the SMEs. To the best of our knowledge, such an approach has not yet been used in debt capacity applications. Findings & value added: We found out that the debt ratio itself provides little explanation of exhausted debt capacity, suggesting that high debt levels are compensated for by other factors. By using the suggested approach, a set of more than 100 different regions was analysed. It was found that in case of five regions (sets of conditions) the debt capacity is exhausted, as the high level of debt has significant distress consequences.

2

Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk on the Example of Non-performing Loans

100%

Zawadzki A.

Central European Economic Journal

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2023

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vol. 10

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issue 57

275-286

EN

The primary goal of this article is to examine the principal macroeconomic factors influencing credit risk as assessed by the nonperforming loan ratio (hereinafter NPL ratio). Based on the results, the ratio of domestic credit to the private sector, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership with a negative correlation with NPLs while the unemployment rate and the ratio of public debt with a positive relation with NPLs were statistically significant. In addition, the correlation between the inflation rate and the depreciation of the home currency wasproven. The research examines the effects of the 2008 credit crunch, which triggered the financial crisis. The sample comprises106 countries for the period 2009–2019. The real GDP growth, unemployment rate, public debt ratio, domestic credit to private sector ratio, currency depreciation, inflation rate, and interest rate were analysed as macroeconomic factors. A dummy variable representing OECD membership has been included in the analysis. The estimations were performed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. This article contributes to the academic discourse on the panel data perspective with regard to non-performing loans, while the practical implications are beneficial for governments and international investors.

3

Impact of foreign direct investment on lower silesia’s economic development

88%

Popławski M.

Journal of Intercultural Management

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2013

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vol. 5

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issue 2

31-62

EN

The paper presents research results concerning the impact of foreign direct investments on the economic development of Lower Silesia in the years 1999-2011. The first year analysed is 1999 - the year in which the new administrative division was introduced into Poland, where the number of provinces was reduced from 49 to 16, with 314 districts and 65 cities being given district rights (including communes which also accomplish the tasks of the district).1 The research takes into account the most important macroeconomic indicators presenting the region’s development, such as the GDP and investment and employment levels. These indices are based on data from the Statistical Office in Wrocław and the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS). Data on companies and entities with foreign capital have been correlated with the above-mentioned indicators to evaluate the foreign investment influence on the region’s economy

4

MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE IN POLAND – DEMATEL METHOD

88%

Miłaszewicz D., Nermend K.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

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2017

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vol. 18

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issue 1

99-109

EN

Investments in agriculture have a direct impact on the sector as well as on the economy in general. These effects are determined by many internal (microeconomic) and external (macroeconomic) factors. In the literature there are many studies on the influence of microeconomic factors on decisions regarding investments in agriculture holdings. Few authors, however, have dealt with macroeconomic conditionality for such decisions. The paper presents the possibility to apply the DEcision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method in examining the causal links between macroeconomic factors and investment in rural areas. Basing on the three independent experts’ opinions referring to the analyzed relationships, we reveal direct and indirect links between the investigated variables.

5

Resilience of Pomorskie region to economic crisis

88%

Masik G., Rzyski S.

Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series

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2014

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vol. 25

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issue 25

129-141

EN

Economic resilience is defined as the ability of the economy to overcome the negative external shocks. It depends on macroeconomic factors and internal conditions of the country or region. Macroeconomic factors include fiscal policy, economic and monetary policy. Among the internal factors economic structure, the level of restructuring and modernization of enterprises, competitiveness and innovation should be mentioned. Among the important soft internal factors level of human capital, including entrepreneurship can be distinguished. The aim of the paper is to present the issue of economic resilience and explain what are the main factors constituting resilience of Pomorskie region (voivodship) in Poland. To achieve this aim, authors first give a theoretical introduction regarding the economic resilience concept as well as describe the methods of economic resilience measurement. Secondly the macroeconomic, external factors affecting the analysed region are discussed. Next the authors measure resilience of Pomorskie region basing on statistical data and compare the resilience of Pomorskie region with other regions in Poland. At the and the authors, basing on extensive interviews with experts, representatives of regional business and administration, attempt to explain why Pomorskie region is more resilient to economic crises than other Polish regions. In this part Pomorskie economy structure is presented too.

6

Impact of Economic Inertia on Economics: a Methodological Framework

88%

Navickas V., Bačiulienė V.

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Częstochowskiej. Zarządzanie

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2021

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issue 44

46-53

EN

The article is devoted to the phenomenon of economic inertia. The authors of the study conducted sufficiently detailed research of economic inertia, on the basis of which the damage to the economy from various economic reforms or economic shocks can be revealed in a timely manner. as Additionally, guidelines can be outlined for further economic growth and sustainable economic development. In their in-depth research on the concept of economic inertia, the authors introduced into usage and employed new concepts of certainty, uncertainty, insufficiency and the redundancy of economic inertia. The authors delineated out as many as four levels of complexity of economic inertia uncertainty. The empirical research is based on a model of the impact of subsidies on the economy. The research model demonstrates that the use of subsidies decreases the market equi-librium price. Innovative companies lose motivation to pursue sustainable economic growth and ensure competitiveness. In this case, the phenomenon of economic inertia is obvious and deprives businesses of the incentives to use innovation to ensure eco-nomic growth. Thus, subsidies as a system of stimulus and rescue in the strategic as-pect of increasing competitiveness have negative effects on the country's economy.

7

Analiza determinant cen nieruchomości w Polsce

75%

Drachal K.

Świat Nieruchomości

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2011

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issue 1(75)

30-33

EN

Some possible house price determinants in Poland were presented by examining particular researches on Eastern and Western Europe and European Community. The impact of those factors was examined on Polish market in recent years. The future possible researches were suggested. It was also stated why demographic and sociological factors are probably more important.

PL

W pracy wyszczególniono potencjalne makroekonomiczne determinanty cen nieruchomości w Polsce na tle krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej oraz Unii Europejskiej. Rozważono wpływ tych czynników w ostatnich latach. Zasugerowano także dalsze badania oraz wykazano, dlaczego bardziej istotnego wpływu należy szukać w czynnikach demograficznych i socjologicznych.

8

The effect of financial, macroeconomic and sentimental factors on stock market volatility

75%

Czapkiewicz A., Choczyńska A.

Przegląd Statystyczny

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2020

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vol. 67

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issue 4

274-293

EN

The aim of this paper is to find economic factors that could be helpful in explaining the market's shifts between periods of prosperity and crisis. The study took into account the main stock indices from developed markets of the USA, Germany and Great Britain, and from two emerging markets, i.e. Poland and Turkey. The analysis confirms the existence of two different states of volatility in these markets, namely the state with a positive returns' mean and low volatility, and the state with a negative or insignificant mean and high volatility. The Markov-switching model with a dynamic probability matrix was applied in the study. The subject of the analysis was the impact of domestic and global factors, such as VIX and TED spread, oil prices, sentiment indices (ZEW), and macroeconomic indices (unemployment, longterm interest rate, CPI), on the probability of switching between the states. The authors concluded that in all the examined countries, changes in long-term interest rates have an influence on market returns. However, the direction of this impact is different for developed and emerging markets. As regards developed markets, high prices of oil, 10-year bonds, and the ZEW index can suggest a high probability of the countries remaining in the first state, whereas an increase in the VIX index and the TED spread significantly reduces the probability of staying in this state. The other studied factors proved to be rather local in nature.

9

Efektywność lokowania krajowych i zagranicznych funduszy inwestycyjnych w Polsce w latach 2007-2016

63%

Ważna E.

Kwartalnik Naukowy Uczelni Vistula

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2018

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issue 3(57)

51-67

PL

Polski rynek funduszy inwestycyjnych działa od dwudziestu lat, z czego ostatnie siedem lat to okres dynamicznych zmian wartości aktywów netto coraz większej liczby funduszy, które stały się coraz bardziej zróżnicowane pod względem prawnym i ekonomicznym. W artykule zaprezentowano analizę efektywności lokowania krajowych i zagranicznych funduszy inwestycyjnych w latach 2007-2016. Słowa kluczowe: fundusze inwestycyjne, rynek kapitałowy, efektywność, czynniki makroekonomiczne, mikroekonomiczne.

EN

The Polish investment fund market has been working for twenty years, and the last seven years has been the period of dynamic changes to the net asset values of a growing number of funds which are now more diverse, both in legal and economic terms. In her article, the author presented an analysis of effectiveness of placement of national and foreign investment funds in the years 2007-2016.

10

Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania budowy portfela funduszu polskich spółek proeksportowych.

63%

Łon E.

Pieniądze i Więź

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2013

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vol. 16

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issue 3(60)

86-97

PL

W artykule zaproponowano utworzenie w Polsce funduszu inwestycyjnego lokującego środki w akcje polskich spółek proeksportowych. Zdefiniowano także pojęcie polskiej spółki proeksportowej. Ponadto przedstawiono wpływ głównych czynników makroekonomicznych na notowania kursów akcji portfela polskich spółek proeksportowych. Z badań wynika, iż w warunkach makroekonomicznych sprzyjających branży eksportowej stopy zwrotu z akcji polskich spółek proeksportowych są kilkakrotnie wyższe od stóp zwrotu z głównych indeksów GPW w Warszawie takich jak: WIG20, mWIG40 oraz sWIG80. W opracowaniu przedstawiono zasady polityki inwestycyjnej funduszy polskich spółek proeksportowych. Zaprezentowano także doświadczenia innych krajów w promocji sektora proeksportowego.

EN

The article proposes the creation of a Polish mutual fund investing assets in equity of Polish export-oriented companies. It defines the concept of Polish export-oriented company and also shows the influence of macroeconomic factors on stock returns of Polish export-oriented companies. The study showed that in the macroeconomic conditions favorable for the export industry, stock returns of the Polish export-oriented companies are higher than the returns of the main WSE indices such as WIG20, mWIG40 and sWIG80. The paper presents also the principles of investment policies of the Polish export-oriented companies’ mutual funds. The Author presents also experiences of other countries in the promotion of export-oriented sector.

11

Economic Security of Enterprises in the Context of National Safety of the State

63%

liutak o., kravchuk o.

Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego

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2013

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vol. 7

41-49

PL

Autorzy artykułu rozważają zasadnicze aspekty dotyczące problemów, które decydują o bezpieczeństwie ekonomicznym przedsiębiorstw. Bezpieczeństwo ich funkcjonowania poddano analizie w kontekście siły powiązań hierarchicznych w państwie. Przyjęto, że są obecne makroekonomiczne źródła zagrożeń mające wpływ na bezpieczeństwo korporacyjne w badanychobszarach zarządzania. Kierunki doskonalenia w obszarze bezpieczeństwa ekonomicznego są brane pod uwagę, jako podstawa dla budowania narodowego bezpieczeństwa i spokoju,co jest uwzględnione w rekomendacjach prezentowanych przez autorów.

EN

What is considered in this article are key positions in relation to the factors that form economic security of an enterprise. Hierarchical strengths of securities are analysed. The macroeconomic sources of the threats that have an influence on corporate safety of the subjects management are certain. Directions of the improvement in the area of economic security of enterprises are considered as the bases for forming the national safety and security of the state in line with the authors’ recommendations.

12

Czynniki makroekonomiczne a spłacalność kredytów konsumpcyjnych

63%

Sztaudynger M.

Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics

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2018

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vol. 296

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issue 4

155-177

EN

This article is the result of research aiming to quantify the association of macroeconomic factors and the risk of consumer loan default. Data at a medium level of aggregation was used to describe the consumer loan portfolio of one of Poland’s largest commercial banks during the period of 2004–2016. The sample consisted of more than 10,000 observations, describing cohorts of loans disbursed in the successive months of the period. The relations were investigated with the use of panel data models. The approach applied in modelling allows to better isolate the effect of the macroeconomic environment from other key factors determining credit risk, i.e. historic changes in the bank’s lending policy and the natural maturation process of the portfolio. The results confirm the interrelation of credit risk and the economic situation, represented in the model by the unemployment rate and industrial production. An increase in the unemployment rate is associated with the increase the default frequency, while greater dynamics of industrial production works in the opposite direction. Lags of up to 12 months were detected in this relationship. However, the connection of interest rates has not been confirmed. The presented model along with widely available macroeconomic forecasts and stress scenarios allows for more accurate prediction of portfolio deterioration during downturns. This will enable formulation of recommendations for bank lending policy during different phases of the business cycle.

PL

Celem badań przedstawionych w artykule jest kwantyfikacja i hierarchizacja wpływu czynników makroekonomicznych na ryzyko zaniechania spłaty kredytu konsumpcyjnego. W analizach wykorzystano dane o średnim poziomie agregacji, które opisywały portfel kredytów konsumpcyjnych jednego z głównych banków komercyjnych w Polsce (w latach 2004–2016). Próba obejmuje ponad 10 tys. obserwacji, charakteryzujących kohorty kredytów uruchamianych w kolejnych miesiącach. Wykorzystano modele danych panelowych. Wyizolowano wpływ sytuacji makroekonomicznej spośród innych kluczowych czynników determinujących ryzyko kredytowe (to jest historycznych zmian polityki kredytowej banku i naturalnego cyklu dojrzewania portfela). Wyniki potwierdziły związek sytuacji gospodarczej, reprezentowanej w modelu przez stopę bezrobocia i produkcję przemysłową, z ryzykiem kredytowym. Wzrostowi stopy bezrobocia towarzyszy większa częstotliwość przypadków zaniechania spłaty, a przyspieszeniu dynamiki produkcji przemysłowej – mniejsza. Stwierdzono również występowanie opóźnień tej asocjacji sięgających 12 miesięcy. Nie został natomiast potwierdzony związek ze stopami procentowymi. Model wraz ogólnodostępnymi prognozami makroekonomicznymi lub scenariuszami stresowymi umożliwia dokładniejsze przewidywanie skali pogorszenia jakości portfela w okresie dekoniunktury, a także formułowanie rekomendacji w zakresie polityki kredytowej, zwłaszcza granicznych poziomów akceptowanego prawdopodobieństwa zaniechania spłaty w różnych fazach cyklu koniunkturalnego.

Refine search results

A novel approach to estimating the debt capacity of European SMEs

Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk on the Example of Non-performing Loans

Impact of foreign direct investment on lower silesia’s economic development

MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE IN POLAND – DEMATEL METHOD

Resilience of Pomorskie region to economic crisis

Impact of Economic Inertia on Economics: a Methodological Framework

Analiza determinant cen nieruchomości w Polsce

The effect of financial, macroeconomic and sentimental factors on stock market volatility

Efektywność lokowania krajowych i zagranicznych funduszy inwestycyjnych w Polsce w latach 2007-2016

Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania budowy portfela funduszu polskich spółek proeksportowych.

Economic Security of Enterprises in the Context of National Safety of the State

Czynniki makroekonomiczne a spłacalność kredytów konsumpcyjnych