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EN
Research background: Excessive credit expansions have an important role in the generation and amplification of business cycles in emerging market (EM) economies. Macroprudential policies can be beneficial in restraining excessive credit growth and safeguarding financial stability. Despite recent theoretical advances in understanding of the benefits of macroprudential policies, empirical evidence on their effect on the credit cycle is still scarce. Purpose of the article: This paper studies the effectiveness of macroprudential measures in the sample of major EM economies focusing on the broad credit measure and using an empirical framework which aims to alleviate several concerns in the previous literature. We examine the effectiveness of four categories of measures which are granular enough to provide relevant policy perspectives, whilst mitigating data sparsity issues. By exploiting both time-series and cross-country variation in the tightness of macroprudential regulation in the construction of policy variables we also mitigate some of the common reverse causality concerns. Methods: We use panel data and employ several (fixed effect, bias corrected LSDV and dynamic interactive fixed effect) estimators to ensure that the results are not sensitive with respect to the estimation method while, together with our construction of the policy variables, alleviating other endogeneity concerns. Findings & value added: We uncover the heterogeneity in the effects of macroprudential measures on the credit cycle. While measures related to bank capital and credit activity are found to be effective in leaning-against the credit cycle, the measures targeting bank liquidity and FX exposures fail to have statistically significant effect. Our results provide the rationale for mixed evidence in the empirical literature studying the effectiveness of the broadly defined macroprudential measures. From the policy perspective, our findings provide evidence that the measures which address excessive credit expansion and strengthen the resilience of the financial system are effective in the EM economies.
EN
The main goal of the paper is to examine dividend smoothing behaviour among companies listed on the stock markets in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru in the period of 1994-2015. The research sample consisted of 227 companies and 4968 observations. On the basis of Lintner’s dividend partial adjustment model, we calculated the speed of dividend adjustment (SOA) in response to the change in earnings. We found many companies with low SOA values, which on the grounds of the classic Linter’s approach implies the existence of dividend smoothing. However, the obtained average SOA values varied in four out of five analyzed stock markets from 0.731 for Chile to 0.914 for Brazil.This means that on selected emerging stock markets of Latin America – except Peru – the dividend smoothing has not been confirmed. Moreover, the obtained SOA levels varied among the selected stock markets, which implies that the differences in the speed of dividend adjustment may be driven by either national or stock markets characteristics.
EN
The article discusses and evaluates the latest trends in research on stabilization policies in medium-developed countries at a time of crisis. The author sets out to determine whether and to what extent these policies have been based on standard (conventional, orthodox) measures and to what extent they have relied on nonstandard (unconventional, unorthodox) methods. To make sure these concepts are useful in his analysis, in the second part of the article the author clarifies their meaning and highlights their relationship with other methods for classifying anti-crisis measures. The third part discusses some recent findings in research on the determinants of emerging markets’ resilience/susceptibility to crises. This section of the article focuses on the impact of an economic policy on the resilience of economies to crisis. The author takes into account the specific features of emerging markets, which determine the need for, possibilities and effectiveness of both standard and nonstandard anti-crisis measures. The focus is on the use of these measures in medium-developed countries. The analysis covers developed countries only insofar they have an impact on the application of similar measures in medium-developed countries, the author says.
EN
The author analyzes the structure of financing enterprises in Poland in 1992-2005. She looks at her findings through the lens of key business financing theories as well as data yielded by international research. In doing so, Nawrot aims to fill a gap in international research because most other researchers dealing with the subject focus on emerging markets in South America and Asia rather than Central and Eastern Europe. The paper features a research method based on a detailed analysis of individual sources of financing in the analyzed period, taking into account changes in enterprises’ ownership structures as well as changes in the choice of sources of funds in the context of the overall changes in the economy. Nawrot’s analyses reveal that changes in the structure of financing Polish enterprises-though consistent with international business financing theories and congruent with the results of analyses made for other emerging markets-largely stemmed from the specific conditions in which these companies operated in the analyzed period, following market-oriented reforms in the Polish economy.
EN
Poland is currently grappling with a challenging situation: as salaries are increasing and more consumers can afford to purchase alcohol, alcoholic consumption in Poland is among the highest in the European Union. Specifically, the market for vodka alone currently stands at $347 million, and beer at $465.2 million (www.money.pl 2011). In response to these developments, the Polish government has levied high taxes on alcohol consumption and enacted some of the most stringent advertising laws for alcoholic products in the European Union. It also launched nine national advertising campaigns and a local campaign in the West-Pomeranian region and increased the excise tax on alcohol. The current study attempts to shed light on the campaigns and to offer insights into the different themes that the campaigns use to persuade consumers to limit their alcohol consumption and to act responsibly when consuming alcohol and to offer actionable solutions to change the alcohol-related consumption behavior in Poland through warning labels, health education, and other attempts at demarketing alcohol consumption. The paper also examines alternative venues that might lead to a change in the alcohol-related consumption behavior for Polish consumers, which may include instituting warning labels and other counteradvertising to educate the public with regard to alcohol-related risks, and thus curb the overall alcohol consumption and related negative outcomes for the Polish consumers.
EN
Background: Liquidity is, in practice of portfolio investment, an important attribute of stocks and measuring illiquidity presents a real challenge for researchers, primarily on developed stock markets. Moreover, there is a lack of research dealing with (il)liquidity on emerging markets. In the paper, the problem of applicability and validity of two well-known illiquidity measures, ILLIQ and TURN, on European emerging markets is observed. Objectives: The paper has two main purposes. The first is to test the relative performance of the two selected illiquidity measures in terms of their validity on European emerging stock markets. The second is to propose a new and improved illiquidity measure named Relative Change in Volume (RCV). Methods/Approach: Using daily returns and traded volumes for 12 stocks which are constituents of stock indices on seven observed markets, ILLIQ and TURN along with the new proposed measure are calculated and tested based on correlation with return. All measures are tested and proposed using the single stock approach. Results: It is shown that ILLIQ and TURN are not appropriate for seven observed markets. The measures do not follow the obligatory request that returns increase in illiquidity while RCV has the ability of taking into account the pressure of big differences in volume on return. RCV gives satisfactory results, making clear the distinction between liquid and illiquid stocks and between liquid and illiquid markets. Conclusions: The proposed measure potentially has important implications in illiquidity measurement in general, and not only for investors on emerging stock markets.
EN
The article presents the results of the research concerning adjustment of multinational enterprises (MNCs) to a complex environment. The research model was grounded in the evolutionary theory, and emerging markets were chosen as the contexts of studies. As a result, three types of adjustment to a complex environment were characterized. Implications for the development of activities were formulated in relation to processes of learning of an organization as main driving forces of adjustment to the environment of a foreign market.
PL
Artykuł prezentuje wyniki badań dotyczących dostosowywania się przedsiębiorstw międzynarodowych do złożonego otoczenia. Model badawczy został osadzony na gruncie teorii ewolucyjnej, natomiast rynki wyłaniające się zostały wybrane jako kontekst badań. W rezultacie zostały scharakteryzowane trzy typy dostosowywania się do złożonego otoczenia. Przedstawiono implikacje co do możliwości rozwoju działań w odniesieniu do procesów uczenia się organizacji jako siły sprawczej dostosowywania się do otoczenia rynków zagranicznych.
Managerial Economics
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2016
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vol. 17
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issue 1
149-162
EN
In this paper we investigate intraday relationships between three Central European stock exchanges: those in Frankfurt, Vienna and Warsaw. They represent different types of stock markets: two of them are developed, while the last is an emerging market. Via DCC-GARCH models we analyze and compare time-varying conditional correlations of intraday returns of the main indices of the stock exchanges. We study the impact of important public information, US macroeconomic news announcements, on the strength of interrelationships between the markets. Additionally, we analyze diurnal patterns in time-varying correlations on different days of the week.
EN
Prices observed on emerging markets are affected by market sentiment changes. The article presents an interdependence analysis of a chosen set of sentiment indicators observed on the Polish OTC market. The set contains both interest rate market (basis swap, asset swap, convergence swap, overnight index swap), foreign exchange market (ATM volatility, risk reversal) and equity market (WIG20). The analysis is focused on cointegration and Granger causality approach in order to present forecasting power of elaborated models. Evidence from the market reveals economic link between the time series that comes from the strong influence of the cross-border trading between non-residents and local market makers. High responsiveness of daily prices of OTC instruments to the changes of the market sentiment and a level of the risk aversion can be proven. Moreover, error correction model using foreign exchange options has practical forecasting power generating adequate trading decisions taken by market makers
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100%
EN
The article provides a  brief review of internal and external factors that determine corporate investment. The results of empirical researches on investment determinants are quoted. They suggest that the key factors for investment, generally speaking, are connected with an economic condition, uncertainty and risk, and the level of financial development.
PL
Artykuł nie zawiera abstraktu w języku polskim
EN
The concept of the cost of equity is one of the key issues of corporate financial management. However, numerous scientific studies as well as economic practice show that there is no single, universal technique for estimating the cost of equity. Moreover, even within a given technique there is often no consensus on how to determine its basic parameters. This article focuses on the most popular technique for estimating the cost of equity, i.e. the CAPM approach. Doubts and problems arising while estimating the cost of equity are analysed and then presented on the example of the banking sector companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 2001–2011.
EN
Research background: We examine the dividend payout policies across companies listed on the main stock exchanges in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). Unlike the highly developed capital markets, the literature regarding dividend policy on BRICS' stock exchanges is scarce.  Purpose of the article: The purpose of this paper is threefold: verification of the existence of dividend smoothing pattern; selection of the significant drivers that affect both dividend levels and dividend smoothing; examination of differences between dividend policy of cross- and single-listed companies. Methods: Based on a dataset of 564 companies that paid dividends for at least 11 consecutive years in the period of 1995-2015, we apply a GMM two-step estimator to assess the speed of dividend adjustment (SOA) coefficient. Further we employ the linear panel regression to indicate the individual and market determinants of the dividend levels and SOAs. In the latter case, we base on time series of the SOAs obtained from the rolling estimation technique. Finally, we conduct separate estimations for cross-listed companies. Findings & value added: We confirm a moderate level of dividend smoothing within BRICS countries. Among the firm-level characteristics affecting the SOA the most important are: ownership dispersion, age and size of a firm, retained earnings, leverage, long term debt, asset tangibility, liquidity risk ratio, and issuing the depositary receipts (DR). Two relevant market factors are found: market capitalisation and turnover in relation to GDP. Similar characteristics have a significant impact on dividends' levels in the entire sample, whereas in the subsample of cross-listed companies fewer variables are significant. Our paper is the first comprehensive attempt to investigate the dividend policy and determinants of dividend smoothing among BRICS countries.
EN
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the transformation of the stock market in the People’s Republic of China (i.e. concentrated on stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen; the stock exchange in Hong Kong was omitted) from its beginnings in the early 1990s, through rapid development over the next two decades, up to the financial crisis of 2008 (the period examined is 1990–2012). The paper presents a short history of the Chinese stock market before and after 1990. Other topics covered include unique stock classification system, comparison of the two stock exchanges, main market participants (including barriers for institutional and foreign investors), and legal/regulatory environment evolution. The next part of the paper consists of an analysis of the main stock market’s development indicators (in both absolute and relative terms). The findings conclude that, in the said period, Chinese stock market has undergone a deep transformation, especially when its size and liquidity are being considered. However, there are still many aspects in which it remains underdeveloped, particularly in the supervision system’s area.
EN
The purpose of this paper was to determine the nature of the relationship between multinationality and performance (M-P relationship) among Polish companies. It is based on a sample of over 300 Polish companies listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange, studied over two years (625 observations were used for statistical processing). Multiple regression and t-statistic analyses were applied to test three hypotheses. The dependent variable was company performance and the independent variable was the degree of company internationalization. A number of control variables were also incorporated in the regression models. The statistically significant results of the multiple regression analyses show that Polish companies experience a negative linear relationship between their degree of internationalization and performance for two variants of the dependent variable, and a non-linear, U-shaped relationship for one dependent variable. The results also show that companies operating on international markets achieve lower market-valuation results than their domestic counterparts, and companies with lower levels of multinationality perform better than those with higher levels of multinationality
EN
Financial globalization and artificial intelligence increase capital mobility along with risk consideration in cross-border investments. Emerging markets are the most vulnerable to specific risk factors like government regulation, political and macroeconomic stability. International investors require additional returns for a business operating in such locations, and higher risks should be captured appropriately in a valuation context. This paper investigates the nature, measures and ways of incorporating country risk premium as an upward adjustment to the discount rate applied within DCF calculations. It shows how to get to country premium using sovereign ratings, credit default swaps and relevant equity market volatility.
Ekonomista
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2020
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issue 1
75-93
PL
Gospodarka Polski jest silnie powiązana z rynkami Europy, a w szczególności z Unią Europejską; prawie 90% polskiego eksportu towarów trafia do krajów europejskich, w tym około 80% do krajów UE. Są to rynki chłonne, stabilne i bezpieczne, a towary sprzedawane na Wspólnym Rynku są wolne od cła. Jednak wysoka koncentracja eksportu na tym rynku oznacza dużą zależność od umiarkowanej dynamiki popytu oraz wahań lokalnej koniunktury, a ponadto ogranicza korzyści, które można czerpać z obecności na rynkach wschodzących, obejmujących dynamicznie rozwijające się kraje o dużych gospodarkach. Artykuł zawiera ogólną charakterystykę tych rynków, ze wskazaniem ich potencjału gospodarczego i ludnościowego oraz miejsca w gospodarce światowej – obecnie i w przyszłości (według aktualnych danych i długookresowych prognoz). Dane o handlu zagranicznym Polski wskazują na bardzo niewielki udział krajów wschodzących w geograficznej strukturze polskiego eksportu. Autor opisuje szanse i zagrożenia związane z ekspansją eksportową na te rynki, podkreślając, że bilans potencjalnych korzyści i ryzyka jest wyraźnie korzystny, co powinno zachęcać polskie przedsiębiorstwa do większej aktywności w handlu i kooperacji z tymi krajami i regionami.
EN
Poland’s economy is closely connected with European markets, particularly within the European Union: almost 90% of Polish commodity export goes to European countries and 80% is absorbed by other EU countries. The common European market is absorptive, safe and stabile, and goods and services sold there are duty free. But the high concentration of exports in this market implies a strong dependence on the modest growth dynamics and local fluctuations of demand, while reducing the gains that could be obtained from the presence in emerging markets which include several large and rapidly growing developing economies. The paper gives a general characteristics of those markets, including the information on their economic and population potential, and their place in the world economy – at present and in the future (according to current statistical data and long-run forecasts). The statistics of Polish foreign trade indicates a very small share of emerging countries in the geographical structure of Poland’s exports. The author describes the chances and threats combined with export expansion to these markets, emphasizing that the net balance of benefits and risks is clearly positive, which should encourage Polish enterprises to take a more active part in trade and cooperation with those countries and regions.
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75%
EN
Sovereign wealth funds (called later SWF) have attracted a lot of attention in the beginning of the new century as many countries from Arab world open funds and invest in the European Union (EU), including new state members such as Poland. This has given way to a rising concern over SWF investments’s influence have on the european economy. Taking into consideration that all sovereign wealth funds combined to hold more than $5 trillion in assets in 2012 and they will exceed the annual economic output of the U.S. by 2015 and that of the EU by 2016, it is important to understand exactly what sovereign wealth funds are and what are the potential benefits and risk involved. Due to their long-term strategic outlook, SWF might contribute to the stability of the international financial markets in the US and EU. It should build more precise and effective institutional framework of sovereign wealth funds’ policy rules, and accountability and transparency mechanisms. SWF can be managed and regulated in order to avoid protectionist measures on the part of the recipients of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), in turn it could greatly benefit bilateral economic relations between EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council GCC.
PL
Rozwój działalności biznesowej w otoczeniu rynków wyłaniających się stanowi wyzwanie dla wielu przedsiębiorstw stosujących tradycyjne strategie. Częściowo jest to spowodowane tzw. ograniczeniami instytucjonalnymi. W konsekwencji tego dopasowane do filozofii rynków dojrzałych modele biznesowe mogą wymagać rekonfiguracji. Konieczna jest identyfikacja morfologii otoczenia, która może okazać się trudna dla przedsiębiorstw spoza danego rynku. Dodatkowym aspektem, który należy wziąć pod uwagę jest fakt, że transformacja instytucjonalna powoduje, iż otoczenie jest bardzo zmienne, co pociąga za sobą konieczność ciągłej rewizji założeń dotyczących konfiguracji źródeł wyników firmy. Celem autorki jest określenie roli instytucji rynków wyłaniających się w replikacji lub innowacji modelu biznesu. W realizacji postawionego celu wykorzystane zostaną wyniki własnych badań, zrealizowanych na podstawie metod jakościowych (case study). Uogólnione wnioski posłużą do sformułowania wytycznych w radzeniu sobie przedsiębiorstw w warunkach niepewności otoczenia.
EN
The development of business activity in the emerging market environment poses a challenge for many enterprises applying traditional strategies. It is partly due to the so called institutional voids. As a result, business models adjusted to mature market philosophy may require reconfiguration. An essential condition is identification of environment morphology which may turn out to be difficult for enterprises from outside a particular market. An additional aspect which should be taken into consideration is the fact that institutional transformation makes the environment highly volatile, which entails the need for continuous review of assumptions regarding the configuration of sources of company’s performance. The objective of this article is to determine the role of emerging market institutions in replication or innovation of a business model. For the purposes of realisation of the objective set the results of author’s own studies conducted on the basis of qualitative methods (case study) will be used. Generalised conclusions will be used to formulate guidelines for enterprises explaining how to manage in the conditions of uncertain environment.
EN
The purpose of this article is to compare Polish investment funds market to other European coun- tries, with particular reference to Central and Eastern Europe, in terms of market size, funds allocation. Investing in mutual funds is one of the reasons of globalization and integration of financial markets. The integration of financial markets of EU countries is supported by Financial Services Action Plan (FSAP) established by European Commission in 1999. The most important legislative initiatives taken under the FSAP are MiFID and UCITS directives, whose main objective is to raise the level of harmonization of financial services among the countries. UCITS IV directive was launched in Poland on 1 February 2013. The analysis was based on annual reports published by the association EFEMA. The size of Pol- ish investment funds market, as well as other CEE countries, is not comparable to the Western Europe countries. However, the gap is decreasing, we observe in CEE countries high growth rate and trends prevailing in the developed countries. Poland plays a leading role in this process. Poland has the biggest investment funds market among the analyzed group of New Member States, almost four times bigger than the average for the group.
PL
Artykuł nie zawiera abstraktu w języku polskim
PL
Autorka koncentruje się na badaniu natury przywództwa i jego wpływu na działania organizacji w warunkach turbulentnego otoczenia. W rozważaniach skupiono się na szczególnym przypadku organizacji, jakim jest przedsiębiorstwo międzynarodowe (MNE). Wyniki badań odpowiadają na następujące pytania: które z możliwych, oraz w jaki sposób, podejście do przywództwa odpowiada na procesy adaptacyjne w nowym otoczeniu rynków wyłaniających się? Na czym polega przywództwo w warunkach złożoności w MNE i jak wpływa ono na rezultaty organizacji? Artykuł rozpoczyna przedstawienie podstaw teoretycznych w zakresie ujęcia przywództwa w świetle założeń wynikających z teorii złożoności. Następnie pokazano kontekst empiryczny rozważań, którym jest działalność MNE w warunkach rynków wyłaniających się. Część badawczą poświęcono określeniu związków między przywództwem a rezultatami uzyskiwanymi przez organizacje. W badaniach posłużono się metodą jakościową – studium przypadku. Próbą badawczą objęto pięć małych i średnich przedsiębiorstw wielonarodowych prowadzących działalność na rynkach wyłaniających się. Wyniki wskazały na dwie strategie radzenia sobie ze złożonością zjawisk, które polegały na redukcji (konwergencji) lub absorbcji (dywergencji) złożoności. Skuteczność działania w obu przypadkach wymaga odmiennego łączenia administracyjnej i adaptacyjnej funkcji przywództwa. Ponadto badane firmy, w zależności od tego, które z typów przywództwa były w nich dominujące, skłonne były do rozwoju swojej działalności w oparciu o odmienne instytucje otoczenia rynków wyłaniających się. Ujawnione tendencje mogą, w krótkim okresie, sugerować kierunek rozwoju organizacji.
EN
In the article, the author concentrates on the exploration of the nature of leadership behaviours and their impact on organisational performance in multinational enterprises (MNEs) in turbulent environments. The results of studies were to answer the following two questions. How and which leadership approach helps understand adaptive processes in an emerging environment? What are complex leadership behaviours of MNEs and how do they influence a successful organisational performance? The article begins with theoretical foundations for the perception of leadership in the light of assumptions resulting from the complexity theory. Then, the empirical context for deliberations, i.e. behaviours of international enterprises in the conditions of emerging markets, is presented. Relationships between leadership and results obtained by organisations were described on the basis of the quality attitude of the case study. The research sample included five small and medium-sized MNEs developing their business activity on emerging markets (EMs). The results exhibit two strategies of dealing with the complexity of phenomena, i.e. complexity reduction and complexity absorption. The aim of the first one is convergence, the latter one is divergent in a distinct way. Effectiveness in both cases requires different activities to combine the administrative and the adaptive functions of leadership. Moreover, in surveyed companies, depending on which leadership types were dominated, the organisations were inclined to develop their activities in different domains of the environment of the emerging market. These tendencies may, in short-term, suggest a possible direction of development of organisations.
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