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On a daily basis, managers in risk management teams use a number of methods to manage various types of risk. One of the most popular methods of measuring market risk is Value at Risk. Estimation of Value at Risk gives a possibility to determine a loss, which can occur or can be exceeded with a given probability and tolerance level. Moreover, this measure of risk shows in just one number entire risk of the portfolio. In addition, various methods and probability distributions can be used to estimate Value at Risk. A goal of this paper is the evaluation of Value at Risk estimation methods on the basis of backtesting results. In the empirical part, the data for 4 investment portfolios was used. The portfolios were diversified in terms of geographic location of firms that were taken into consideration.
EN
The system of open pension funds (OFE) is a consequence of the pension re-organisation that took place in 1999 in Poland. Since then, thanks to the size of assets under management, OFEs have become one of the most important players on the Polish financial market. The aim of this analysis is to examine aggregated portfolio structure in terms of both debt instruments and shares. The study also comprises a description of legal restrictions regarding investment policy. Two approaches have been implemented for the shares of an aggregated portfolio. One involves an analysis focused on stocks in which OFEs invested the highest absolute amount. The other approach focused on stocks in which OFEs had obtained the highest shareholder stake. Our results suggest that, in terms of relative stake of shareholders, OFEs invest the most in medium-size companies. However, further studies must take into account more factors in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the issue.
EN
In this paper the main objective is to examine whether the selection of the performance measure influences the evaluation of individual investments and the performance rankings generated on that basis. This study presents the values of 16 performance indicators along with their detailed descriptions. All calculations were made using the R program, and the source code can be found at the end of the article. Nine selected stock indices were analysed during the period January 1997– December 2015, and the monthly logarithmic rates of return for these indices were calculated. For 14 out of the 16 measures analysed it was shown that the choice of effectiveness measure had no influence on the evaluation of individual investments; therefore it is not important whether the investor uses the Sharpe ratio or the Calmar ratio as an indicator of efficiency since both measures are almost identical in rank for a particular investment. This has not been confirmed for the Upside Potential ratio, which means that using this indicator may lead to different investment decisions in which the objective is to maximize efficiency. Moreover, based on the analysis it was found that the OMXC 20, DAX 30, and OMXS 30 indexes had the highest efficiency during the period January 1997–December 2015, while the AEX, WIG 20, and PSI 20 indexes were characterized with having the lowest levels of efficiency.
EN
As a result of the technological development and the emergence of new theoretical concepts of investment funds strategies, a new category of funds, known as smart beta, has emerged. The foundation of their functioning assumes constructing an investment portfolio that replicates a specially developed index, the design of which is to ensure a higher investment  efficiency than that resulting from a typically passive investment. With the task of combining the ability to generate premium rates of return with a transparent structure and low management fees, smart beta funds are a very interesting hybrid of classical actively and passively managed funds. The interest of researchers and investors in these funds has been so far limited mainly to the United States. In the case of the Polish market – smart beta funds continue to remain a concept that is not widely known. This fact has become a prerequisite for disseminating knowledge about them in the Polish literature of the subject. The first part of the article presents the theoretical framework of smart beta funds as a consequence of a long-term evolution in portfolio management. Next, the general idea of the functioning of the smart beta funds is presented together with the outline of their place in the structure of the financial market segment. The main and the most extensive part of the article is based on literature studies and aims at an in-depth review of the key technical aspects related to the construction of an effective strategy used by smart beta funds.
PL
Wskutek rozwoju technologicznego i pojawienia się nowych koncepcji teoretycznych funkcjonowania funduszy inwestycyjnych wyłoniła się nowa kategoria funduszy określanych jako smart beta. Fundamentem ich funkcjonowania jest budowa portfela inwestycyjnego replikującego specjalnie opracowany indeks, którego konstrukcja ma zapewnić wyższą efektywność inwestycji niż ta wynikająca z inwestycji typowo pasywnej. Fundusze smart beta mają łączyć zdolność generowania ponadprzeciętnych stóp zwrotu z przejrzystą strukturą i niskimi opłatami za zarządzanie, stanowią więc bardzo interesującą hybrydę klasycznych funduszy zarządzanych aktywnie i pasywnie. Zainteresowanie badaczy i inwestorów ograniczało się do głównie do Stanów Zjednoczonych. W przypadku rynku polskiego fundusze smart beta wciąż pozostają koncepcją szerzej nieznaną, co stało się przesłanką dla upowszechnienia wiedzy o nich w polskim piśmiennictwie. Część pierwsza artykułu przedstawia teoretyczne fundamenty powstania funduszy smart beta jako konsekwencji długofalowej ewolucji w zarządzaniu portfelem inwestycyjnym. Następnie zaprezentowana została ogólna idea funkcjonowania funduszy smart beta wraz z nakreśleniem ich miejsca w strukturze segmentu rynku finansowego, jakim są instytucje wspólnego inwestowania. Artykuł zamyka pogłębiony przegląd kluczowych aspektów technicznych związanych z budową efektywnie działającej strategii wykorzystywanych przez fundusze smart beta, przygotowany na podstawie studiów literaturowych.
EN
Theoretical background: Value investing is one of the most popular investing approaches. In their frame, there could be a high B/M investing strategy identified. F-Score, developed by Piotroski, is a scoring model applied to the sample of high B/M entities. Its purpose is to select companies with strong financial foundations and buy their shares for the investment portfolio to generate positive market-adjusted returns in the following periods. The effectiveness of this model was mostly empirically confirmed, especially regarding developed markets. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the paper was to build F-Score-like models based on the data from the Polish stock market. The main hypothesis concerned the higher effectiveness of such models than F-Score, as the specificity of a given market should result in a better fit to the data. Research methods: Building of the models based on the discriminant analysis and formation of the investment portfolios based on the indications of these models as well as F-Score. Finally, backtesting of the portfolios built to assess their effectiveness. The sample covered most of the Polish-listed companies. The period taken into account was 2012–2022. Main findings: Models built (X-Score and Y-Score) were less efficient than F-Score. Moreover, they led to generating negative rates of return (both raw and market-adjusted). On the other hand, using of F-Score for the analyzed period seems to be purposeful due to the 1.35% mean annual market-adjusted return generated. Apart from the scoring models analyzed, the research partially confirmed the advisability of using a high B/M investing strategy. Generally, the results obtained are in line with the findings of most of other authors –regarding the F-Score effectiveness. However, an approach based on Mohanram’s idea – using the differences between absolute values of a given variable and median from the sample – proved to be inadequate in the Polish stock market.
EN
As a result of the global financial crisis in the investment portfolio apart from financial instruments, non-financial assets, especially gold, have become of great importance. In periods of high turbulence in financial markets "gold assets" are negatively correlated with the stock market. Hence they are important determinants of investment in gold, gold stocks and volatility in the market.
EN
The main purpose of the submitted article is the estimation of financial investors’ potential in Poland. There are four groups of collective investors on financial market in Poland like Banks, Insurance companies, Investment funds and Open Pension Funds, which have been analyzed. Their importance on financial market and especially on capital market in Poland is still rising. The dynamics of their assets value in 2009 – 2013 periods has been analyzed. Financial investors’ assets and Gross National Product in Poland ratio has been calculated. The influence of the financial crisis and post-crisis time on the investment portfolios structure has been also reviewed.
EN
While water demand is projected to grow by 41% by 2030, considering also the ultimate reserves of drinking water, it is believed that this element will attract the majority of investments in the coming decades. Opportunities in drinking water sector are numerous, because its process of providing and delivery of drinking water includes many aspects: management of infrastructure, design of technological solutions, conservation and water’s quality. These opportunities result from the difference between water supply and water demand; an increasingly difference that requires capital investments in production and water treatment technologies. Investments need to be combined with the knowledge on the legislation, regulatory framework and technological developments. This article may serve to clarify type of investments in drinking water sector, known by literature, to identify opportunities of investment in this sector, indicating the theoretical framework of beta and alpha risk ratio coefficient calculation and to suggest how these types of investments can be allocated to the investment portfolios.
EN
Legal limitations in Poland regarding activities of retiring funds exclude their direct investing in immovables, which leads to the decreasing of their diversification options, and consequently – in the authors’ to this paper opinion – to increasing potential investment risks. By means of some quantitative methods the authors analyze the effectiveness of investment portfolios of the retiring funds in Poland. The purpose of the present research is to achieve an answer to the question whether adding immovables to the investment portfolios of the Polish retiring funds would result in their better diversification and effectiveness.
EN
The presented research describes methods, used to evaluate and choose more efficient solutions, regarding participation in stock market activities. A newly developed forecasting model, based on classically applied and time-proven methodologies, was created. Its aim was to ease the decision-making in the related area as well as to rationalize the optimal investment portfolio structure determination process.
EN
The subject of the study was the structure of the investment portfolio in 28 cooperative banks affiliated with the Cooperative Banking Group (SGB) in 2019–2021. During the period, performance pressures caused by a decline in interest income prompted banks, among other things, to optimize profits by adjusting the composition of the investment portfolio to the surrounding reality. During the research period, 93% of the banks analyzed saw their appetite for investment risk increase, and as a consequence, the structure of their investment portfolio changed significantly. The most important conclusion of the study is that in 18% of the surveyed entities the investment policy was implemented inconsistently with the bank’s charter, which should be considered in legal and regulatory, but also ethical terms.
PL
Przedmiotem badań opisanych w niniejszym artykule była struktura portfela inwestycyjnego w 28 bankach spółdzielczych zrzeszonych w Spółdzielczej Grupie Bankowej (SGB) w latach 2019–2021. W okresie tym presja wynikowa spowodowana spadkiem przychodów odsetkowych skłoniła banki m.in. do optymalizacji zysków przez dostosowanie składu portfela inwestycyjnego do otaczającej rzeczywistości. W okresie badawczym u 93% analizowanych banków wzrósł apetyt na ryzyko inwestycyjne, w konsekwencji czego znacząco zmieniła się struktura portfela inwestycyjnego. Najważniejszym wnioskiem z badania jest to, że u 18% badanych podmiotów polityka inwestycyjna była realizowana niezgodnie ze statutem banku, co należy rozważać w kategoriach prawno-regulacyjnych, ale i również etycznych.
EN
The article briefly describes the portfolio characteristics connected with the distribution of its rates of return and presents the results of empirical studies on the parameters of portfolios including particular alternative investments (commodities, precious metals, real estate fund, hedge funds, investable wine).
PL
Artykuł nie zawiera abstraktu w języku polskim
EN
This paper deals with modeling the default of enterprises listed on Poland’s NewConnect market. The study covers an overview of the empirical literature on default prediction in Poland and proposes logit models to predict the default of enterprises listed on the NewConnect market over a one-year horizon. The lack of robustness of the estimates suggests there is no stable or monotonic relation between the financial indicators and default probability on the NewConnect market. Moreover, the models estimated in the study as well as those proposed in the literature suffer from a lack of out-of-sample predictive capabilities. Despite this, default prediction models seem to be potentially useful in the selection of stocks and in weighing them in the investment portfolio. Portfolios constructed on the basis of default prediction models, both those estimated in this paper and those proposed in the literature, are more profitable than a market portfolio with equal weights in each stock.
PL
Niniejsza praca podejmuje problematykę modelowania bankructwa spółek notowanych na rynku NewConnect. Dokonano przeglądu prac empirycznych związanych z predykcją upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce i za pomocą regresji logistycznej zbudowano modele przewidujące bankructwa spółek notowanych na rynku NewConnect w rocznym horyzoncie czasowym. Brak odporności uzyskanych oszacowań podaje w wątpliwość istnienie stabilnej i monotonicznej relacji pomiędzy wskaźnikami finansowymi a prawdopodobieństwem bankructwa na NewConnect. Równocześnie zarówno oszacowane modele, jak i najpopularniejsze polskie modele predykcji bankructwa cechują się brakiem zdolności prognostycznych out-of-sample. Mimo to modele predykcji bankructwa okazują się być potencjalnie przydatne w wyborze celów inwestycyjnych i ustaleniu wag poszczególnych akcji w portfelu inwestycyjnym – portfele skonstruowane na podstawie modeli oszacowanych w niniejszej pracy oraz najpopularniejsze polskie modele predykcji bankructwa cechują się wyższą stopą zwrotu niż portfel z równymi wagami dla wszystkich spółek.
EN
The purpose of the submitted article is to present the evolution of legal regulations concerning the functioning of Open Pension Funds, the assessment of legislative changes’ influence their financial potential and impact on the level of funds collected by members of the open pension funds for their future pensions. According to the formulated research hypothesis, the current law regulations resulted in a significant reduction in pension funds’ importance, as financial investors, and the level of contributions, transferred to their investment portfolios will result in the very low level of the replacement rate for their clients. This should make investing in the third voluntary pension pillar more common among future pensioners.
PL
Celem artykułu jest prezentacja ewolucji regulacji prawnych w zakresie funkcjonowania OFE, ocena wpływu ustawowych zmian na ich potencjał finansowy oraz ich wpływ na poziom zgromadzonych środków przez członków OFE na poczet przyszłych emerytur. Sformułowana została hipoteza badawcza, zgodnie z którą aktualnie obowiązujące regulacje prawne spowodowały znaczne zmniejszenie roli OFE jako inwestorów finansowych w Polsce, a poziom aktualnie przekazywanych składek do ich portfeli spowoduje uzyskanie stopy zastąpienia przez ich klientów na bardzo niskim poziomie, co powinno uczynić inwestowanie w III dobrowolnym filarze emerytalnym bardziej powszechnym.
EN
Hybrid bonds are financial instruments that occupy the space between equity capital and debt capital. Out of these bonds the most representative instrument are convertible bonds. They have characteristics resembling both shares and straight bonds. The complex structure of convertible bonds causes their marketprice to be determined in terms of three components: straight bond value, share value, and conversion option value. An important decision of the investor in the case of these bonds is their conversion into shares. It is particularly difficult with callable convertible bonds because the interests of both parties to the transaction, i.e. the investor and the issuer, come then into consideration. Convertible bonds are an important instrument of investment and a component of investment portfolios.
PL
Brak abstraktu w języku polskim
EN
The paper presents a comprehensive introduction to volatility trading, from explaining the definition of volatility, through simple strategies for getting exposure to volatility, to advanced ETN products constructed from derivatives on the VIX index. The theoretical part discusses the idea of volatility trading derived from the assumptions of the Black-Scholes option valuation model. The remainder of this paper presents derivatives that provide exposure to volatility along with the opportunities and pitfalls faced by investors in this market. The practical part presents the proprietary approach to creating investment strategies based on the anomalies of implied volatility of the S & P500 and model portfolios built of products from the Volatility ETP segment and the ETF for the S & P500 index, dedicated to cautious investors, which can be an alternative to mixed equity and
PL
Autorzy przedstawiają kompleksowe wprowadzenie w zagadnienie handlu zmiennością, wychodząc od wyjaśnienia definicji zmienności, przez proste strategie uzyskiwania ekspozycji na zmienność, po zaawansowane produkty ETN skonstruowane z instrumentów pochodnych na indeks VIX. W części teoretycznej omówiono ideę handlu zmiennością, wywodzącą się z założeń modelu na wycenę opcji Blacka-Scholesa. W dalszej części przedstawiono instrumenty pochodne, dające ekspozycję na zmienność wraz z okazjami oraz pułapkami, które stają przed inwestorami biorącymi udział w tym rynku. W części praktycznej zaprezentowano autorskie podejście do tworzenia strategii inwestycyjnych, oparte na anomaliach zmienności implikowanej S&P500 oraz modelowych portfelach zbudowanych z produktów z segmentu Volatility ETP oraz ETFu na indeks S&P500, przeznaczonych dla przezornych inwestorów, które mogą stanowić alternatywę dla mieszanych portfeli akcyjnoobligacyjnych.
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