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EN
Research background: Transfer of newly created money through unconventional monetary measures follows the official European Central Bank distribution key. Yet, it does not take into account the ability of individual countries to drive growth process in other economies. Money spent to boost domestic credit provisioning in growth pole-like economies is more likely to spill over to other adjoined economies and help them to recover, even in the presence of depressed domestic demand and/or overleveraged domestic banking sector. Purpose of the article: This paper reports growth pole scores for 19 euro area countries, and compares it to the official distribution key used to transmit newly created source of funding. Methods: We modify the procedure developed in World Bank (2011) for growth pole com-putation in order to account for strength of linkages connecting member states. Findings & Value added: Our results suggest that the official distribution key might not be completely optimal once looking at the growth pole scores. Countries small in economic size (Baltic states, Slovakia and Slovenia) would benefit from a more differentiated distribution, as they strongly outperform their benchmark set by the official distribution key. On the other hand, big euro area economies do not achieve the levels used in official distribution key, taking into account their growth pole potential for other euro area economies.
Oeconomia Copernicana
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2018
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vol. 9
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issue 4
581-615
EN
Research background: In this research paper, an attempt is made to evaluate the impacts of ECB's unconventional monetary policy which has been applied after Global Financial Crisis. Because of the new economic and monetary conditions, the effectiveness of conventional monetary tools has been questioned. Purpose of the article: Designed models examine the consequences of unconventional monetary policy for macroeconomic variables, monetary variables and interest rates in the euro area. Particular attention is paid to the response of the price level, represented by HICP, to various monetary policy innovations. Except a shock in credit multiplier and asset purchase programme (APP), also the effectiveness of a conventional monetary tool, such as main refinancing operation (MRO) interest rate, is inspected. Methods: Use has been made of impulse responses from structural VAR models to analyze a large sample that covers the time horizon of 1999 to 2016. Several econometric tests are performed to provide a profound analysis. The conclusions from baseline models are verified in multiple robustness check models, which are specified under alternative conditions. Findings & Value added: It has been found that, in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, conventional monetary instruments are effective in the short-run. In the long-run, unconventional monetary policy has a greater potential to stabilize the economy than the traditional interest rate transmission channel. The conclusions from the baseline models are verified in multiple robustness check models, which are specified under alternative conditions.
Oeconomia Copernicana
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2016
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vol. 7
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issue 1
7-21
EN
The implementation of unconventional (nonstandard) monetary policy instruments by the leading central banks at the wake of the financial and economic crisis was the most significant shift in the practice of central banking in the recent years. Evaluation of their effects is not feasible without a thorough recognition of the transmission mechanism of various balance-sheet policies, such as quantitative easing. The transmission channels of a standard interest-rate policy are based on a group of theories that are relatively coherent and well-documented. On the contrary, identification of similar framework for unconventional measures proved to be a complicated task. The aim of this paper is to extract and evaluate the theoretical efficiency of particular channels of unconventional monetary policy. This goal requires references to at least several, to some extent mutually exclusive, theories. It is also inevitable to draw one’s attention to the relative significance of identified channels, depending on the nature of used unconventional tools, as well as on reactions of financial institutions and other economic agents to undertaken actions. This paper discusses three broad channel of the unconventional policies transmission mechanism: the signaling channel, the liquidity channel, and the portfolio-balance channel.
PL
This paper studies the effect of central banks’ targeted refinancing operations on bank lending. It utilizes data from the European Central Bank’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) together with monthly bank level balance sheet data from multiple countries. The effect of targeted policy is identified utilizing the institutional setting that provides natural instrumental variables and a proxy for credit demand. Unlike previous papers, this paper studies the effects on corporate loans and loans for consumption separately. The cumulative effect of TLTROs on participating banks’ stock of corporate loans is estimated to be significant (about 20 per cent). However, the effect on lending for consumption is found close to zero. Furthermore, the positive effects on corporate loans are found to be driven by crisis countries suggesting that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the economic conditions. The paper also finds some evidence that the effect on government bond purchases is negative. This result is very different from the earlier results regarding non-targeted liquidity operations.
PL
Niekonwencjonalność polityki pieniężnej może być rozpatrywana w zależności od systemu, w jakim jest ona prowadzona. Mówienie o niekonwencjonalności polityki pieniężnej ma sens w odniesieniu do systemów, które uznają stabilność cen za priorytet, a czynniki kształtujące popyt na pieniądz za instrumenty tej polityki. W niniejszym artykule: po pierwsze, wyodrębniono zbiór wspólnych elementów polityki pieniężnej stosowanych w różnych krajach, które można uznać za czynniki wyznaczające jej konwencjonalność. Po drugie, została dokonana analiza elementów, które wprowadzają cechy niekonwencjonalności. Po trzecie, pokazane są skutki różnych form niekonwencjonalności polityki pieniężnej w odniesieniu do jej efektywności oraz możliwości powrotu do polityki konwencjonalnej. Ostatnia część poświęcona jest skutkom wyboru określonej formy niekonwencjonalności przez EBC.
EN
The unconventionality of monetary policy can be considered depending on the system in which it is functioning. Talking about unconventionality monetary policy makes sense for systems that recognize price stability, priority, and factors shaping demand for money for instruments of this policy. In this article: firstely a set of common elements of monetary policy applied in different countries was distinguished, which can be considered as factors that determined its conventionality. Secondely, the elements responsible for the introduction the unconventionality are analyzed. Thirdly, the effects of the different forms of political unconventionality in relation to its effectiveness and the possibility of returning to politics conventional is analyzed. The last part is devoted the results of choosing a particular form unconventionality by the ECB.
EN
The recent financial and economic crisis was followed by an unprecedented monetary policy response. Major central banks adopted a highly accommodative monetary policy stance, cutting their policy interest rates to near zero. Then, as the zero bound on nominal interest rates is a significant constraint on central bank action, further stimulus was provided by unorthodox tools. The paper investigates whether unconventional monetary policy produces spillover effects from advanced economies into emerging markets. While unconventional central bank interventions have mitigated dysfunction in targeted markets in developed countries, they could have produced spillover effects associated with the inflow of capital and higher volatility in currency and financial markets in developing countries. The results suggest that there are indeed global spillovers and externalities from monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. However, it is difficult to determine whether such externalities are overall positive or negative for other economies, the author says. The potentially undesirable effects of these measures on the procyclicality of capital flows to emerging market economies (EME) need to be weighed against potential benefits such as increased economic activity and better functioning of financial markets in the global economy. Recent research suggests that adjustments in policy rates and unconventional policies have similar cross-border effects on asset prices and economic outcomes. If that is so, the author argues, then the overall stance of policy accommodation matters more here than the particular form of easing.
PL
Tematem artykułu jest analiza efektów zewnętrznych niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej (unconventional monetary policy, UMP). Tekst odwołuję się do literatury poświęconej mechanizmom transmisji UMP, a także wyników badań empirycznych. Ostatni kryzys finansowy i ekonomiczny wywołał bezprecedensową reakcję ze strony polityki monetarnej. Główne banki centralne odwołały się do wysoce akomodacyjnej polityki pieniężnej, obniżającej stopy procentowe prawie do zera. Ograniczyło to możliwości dalszego stymulowania gospodarki i wymusiło odwołanie się do instrumentów niekonwencjonalnych. Artykuł służy poszukiwaniu odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy UMP stała się źródłem impulsów transmitowanych z krajów rozwiniętych do rozwijających się. Jeżeli nawet UMP zmniejszyła dysfunkcjonalność rynków finansowych w krajach rozwiniętych, to z drugiej strony mogła wywołać napływ kapitału, zmienność kursów walutowych i niestabilność rynków finansowych w krajach rozwijających się. Wyniki sugerują, że faktycznie występują znaczące efekty zewnętrzne, trudno natomiast jednoznacznie ocenić, czy są one pozytywne czy negatywne. Ponadto UMP wydaje się wywierać podobny wpływ na gospodarkę jak polityka konwencjonalna. Wskazuje to, że większe znaczenie może mieć charakter polityki, a nie konkretne formy w jakich jest prowadzona.
PL
W wyniku zainicjowanych w 2007 roku napięć na rynku finansowym i następującej eskalacji kryzysu główne banki centralne weszły na ziemię dziewiczą, stosując niekonwencjonalną politykę monetarną (UMP - unconventional monetary policy). Celem opracowania jest właśnie eksploracja obszarów związanych ze stosowaniem niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej. Ponieważ szczegóły programów UMP różniły się pomiędzy poszczególnymi bankami centralnymi i zależały od specyfiki gospodarek przedstawiono specyfikę UMP w konfrontacji z działaniami tradycyjnymi. Omówione zostały kanały, za pośrednictwem których UMP oddziałuje na gospodarkę. Pierwszym jest kanał restrukturyzacji portfela. Drugi kanał dotyczy korzystnych efektów zakupu aktywów zapewniających płynność rynku w okresach jej niedostatków. I w końcu informacja o zakupie aktywów pełni rolę sygnalizowania opinii banku centralnego na temat stanu gospodarki i prawdopodobnej reakcji na przyszłą ewolucję. Natomiast kwestią otwartą pozostaje skuteczność nowych instrumentów polityki, jak również ich przyszłych konsekwencji. Zaprezentowano również szersze kwestie związane z niepożądanymi skutkami UMP.
EN
Since the initial market strains began in 2007 and in response to the escalation of the crisis, major central banks entered into unchartered territory by adopting unconventional monetary policy (UMP) actions in line with their operational frameworks and mandates. The article explore a number of issues connected to the use of such unconventional monetary policy measures. Because the details of the UMP programs varied across central banks and depended on the particular structures of their respective economies the specific features of UMP in comparison with traditional measures were presented. I summarize the different channels through which UMP may affect national economy. One channel works through the portfolio balance effects. A second channel involves the beneficial market effects that asset purchases can have in times of stress by providing market liquidity. Lastly, asset purchase announcements may have signaling effects about the central bank’s perception of economic conditions and about how it might be likely to react to future developments. The effectiveness of these new policy tools is an open question and many challenges and open issues remain regarding the future. The broader questions concerning undesirable implications of unconventional policy measures are also presented.
PL
Opracowanie koncentruje się na analizie charakteru i form zastosowanej przez banki centralne w okresie globalnego kryzysu finansowego polityki luzowania ilościowego (quantitative easing). Bezpośrednim jego celem jest ocena skutków tej polityki. Ich analizę przeprowadzono w płaszczyźnie teoretycznej i w wymiarze realnym, wskazując na ich różnorodność warunkującą realizację przez banki centralne tzw. strategii wyjścia.
EN
The study focuses on the analysis of the character and form of quantitative easing policy, used by central banks during the global financial crisis. Its main aim is to assess the consequences of this policy, which are analysed from the point of view of both theory and practice. The study indicates their diversity, which determines the implementation of exit strategy by central banks.
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